MORI Political Monitor - Political Attitudes in Great Britain

MORI's latest Political Monitor shows that satisfaction with the way Tony Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister and with the Government generally has fallen since December last year. The Conservatives have also made gains in terms of voting intention, though Labour retains a narrow lead. However, it should be noted that fieldwork for the last Political Monitor in December was carried out immediately after the capture of Saddam Hussein, which provided a boost to the PM's approval ratings and Labour's voting intention share.

The poll, conducted between 15-20 January, is the first MORI survey of voting intentions and ratings of the party leaders' performance this year.

The key messages are:

1. Satisfaction with Prime Minister and Government are down from last month

Satisfaction with the Prime Minister has fallen four points from 36% to 32%, with dissatisfaction rising by the same amount (to 59%). This gives a net satisfaction score of -27 points. Satisfaction with the Government has also fallen this month, with one in four (25%) people saying they are now satisfied with the way the Government is running the country - down four points from December. The satisfaction index is now at -38%.

Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair/Mr Howard/Mr Kennedy is doing his job as Prime Minister/leader of the Conservative Party/leader of the Liberal Democrats?

Base: c. 1,000 GB adults, 18+, Source: MORI

2. Conservatives close voting intentions gap

Among the 52% of the electorate who say they are certain to vote in an immediate general election, Labour retains a lead of 2 points over the Conservatives (37% to 35%). However, the Conservatives are up four points on December and are back to the levels recorded in October and November. Labour is down three points and the Liberal Democrats are up one point.

Q How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Base: All absolutely certain to vote (c. 1,000 GB adults, 18+), Source: MORI

3. Howard's reputation is improving

There is further good news for the leader of the Opposition, Michael Howard, with three in ten of the public now saying they are satisfied with the job he is doing as leader of the Conservative Party. In December, 21% were satisfied. In contrast, 22% say they are dissatisfied, up 1 point from December. However, about half the public still express no opinion about Michael Howard's performance.

Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Duncan Smith/Mr Howard is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?

Base: c.1,000 GB adults, 18+, Source: MORI

Note: October asked of Iain Duncan Smith

Michael Howard also continues to command the support of a majority of Conservative supporters. Almost six in ten are satisfied with his performance, with 12% registering dissatisfaction.

Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Duncan Smith/Mr Howard is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? (Conservative supporters only)

Base: All Conservative supporters, Source: MORI

Note: October asked of Iain Duncan SmithTory supporters are defined as those who say they will vote Conservative at the next General Election

4. Issues Facing the Country

The following table shows the top 5 issues facing the country at the start of each year over the past three decades.

Q What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as the other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: c. 1,000 GB adults, 18+, Source: MORI

Topline Results

• MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,960 adults aged 18+ at 200 sampling points across Britain.
• Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 15-20 January 2004.
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
• Voting figures based on all exclude those who say they would not vote (12%), are undecided (10%) or refuse to name a party (1%).

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?Base: 1,960 British adults 18+

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?Base: All absolutely certain to vote (1,037)

The headline figures are based on all respondents absolutely certain to vote.

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Duncan Smith / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?Base: 1,028 British adults 18+

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?Base: 1,028 British adults 18+

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?Base: 1,028 British adults 18+

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?Base: 1,960 British adults 18+