MORI Political Monitor September - Topline Results

MORI's monthly Political Monitor, conducted for The Observer, between 10 and 14 September shows that the Conservatives have one point lead over Labour among those who say they are certain to vote in an immediate General Election. This is the first time since July 2002 that MORI's Political Monitor has shown a Conservative lead.

The survey looks in depth at a range of key factors in voting behaviour, including issues for the election, which party is seen to have the best policies to tackle the key issues, party and leader images and ratings of the Government.

• MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,924 adults aged 18+ at 192 sampling points across Great Britain.
• Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 10-14 September 2004.
• Data weighted to the national population profile
• An '*' indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All absolutely certain to vote (1,008)

	%
Conservative	33
Labour	32
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	25
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	2
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	4
Other	2
Lab lead (+%)	-1
Would not vote	1
Undecided	8
Refused	1

Q2b How strongly do you support the party? Do you support them very strongly, fairly strongly, not very strongly or not strongly at all?

Base: All respondents 18+ expressing a voting preference (1,439)

	%
Strongly	14
Fairly strongly	47
Not very strongly	31
Not strongly at all	7
Don't know	1

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Howard / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Index
	%	%	%	%
Government (Q3)	29	62	9	-33
Blair (Q4)	32	61	7	-29
Howard (Q5)	26	40	34	-14
Kennedy (Q6)	39	25	36	+14

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

	Q7	Q7/8
	%	%
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism	23	36
National Health Service/Hospitals	9	34
Education/schools	7	29
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism	10	27
Race relations/immigration/immigrants	14	26
Pensions/social security	3	15
Economy/economic situation	4	10
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency	3	8
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry	3	8
Taxation	1	8
Housing	2	7
Drug abuse	2	6
Morality/individual behaviour	2	5
Transport/public transport	*	5
Public services in general	2	4
Pollution/environment	1	4
Poverty/inequality	1	4
Inflation/prices	1	3
Local government/council tax	*	3
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages	*	2
Petrol prices/fuel	*	2
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods	*	1
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament	*	1
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound	*	1
Countryside/rural life	0	1
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis	*	*
Privatisation	*	*
Trade unions/strikes	*	*
AIDS	0	*
Animal welfare	0	*
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease	0	*
Northern Ireland	0	*
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform	0	*
Other	6	15
Don't know	6	5

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

	%
Improve	14
Stay the same	46
Get worse	36
Don't know	5
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI]	-22

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

Base: 1,924 British adults 18+

	%
10 -- absolutely certain to vote	50
9	6
8	8
7	5
6	4
5	7
4	2
3	3
2	2
1 -- absolutely certain not to vote	11
Don't know	2
Refused	*

Q11 Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

	%
Asylum	37
Animal welfare	8
Constitution/devolution	5
Defence	24
Education	47
Europe	21
Health care	54
Housing	19
Law and order	45
Managing the economy	24
Pensions	40
Protecting the natural environment	18
Public transport	19
Taxation	33
Trade Unions	3
Unemployment	22
Other	3
Don't know	5

Q12 I am going to read out a list of problems facing Britain today and for each one, I would like you to tell me whether you think that the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party has the best policy on each?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Other	None of these	Don't know
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Asylum	21	14	8	5	12	40
Animal welfare	7	19	9	6	8	51
Constitution/devolution	16	16	9	3	7	49
Defence	25	20	7	2	8	38
Education	20	27	13	2	7	30
Europe	19	20	11	6	8	35
Health care	15	28	10	3	10	34
Housing	12	24	7	3	10	44
Law and order	25	22	6	3	9	35
Managing the economy	18	32	6	2	8	34
Pensions	15	17	11	3	14	41
Protecting the natural environment	7	13	16	17	9	38
Public transport	10	22	12	5	12	40
Taxation	21	18	11	2	10	38
Trade Unions	15	25	6	2	9	44
Unemployment	12	31	7	2	9	38

Q13-15 Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit…?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

	Q13	Q14	Q15
	Mr Blair	Mr Howard	Mr Kennedy
	%	%	%
A capable leader	30	15	17
Good in a crisis	20	5	4
Understands world problems	19	10	13
Tends to talk down to people	22	17	2
Rather narrow minded	17	13	3
Too inflexible	20	9	2
Has sound judgement	6	9	11
More honest than most politicians	11	7	25
Down-to-earth	13	6	26
Understands the problems facing Britain	20	17	16
Patriotic	16	19	11
Has got a lot of personality	22	7	11
Rather inexperienced	5	13	25
Out of touch with ordinary people	44	22	6
No opinion	8	34	39

Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties.

Q16-18 Read through the list slowly keeping the [Conservative Party, Labour Party and the Liberal Democrat Party] in mind. Every time you come to a statement that fits your ideas or impressions of the [Conservative Party, Labour Party and the Liberal Democrat Party], just tell the letter next to it. You may pick as many or as few as you like. You don't have to be certain, just pick the letters next to the statements you feel fit the [Conservative Party, Labour Party and the Liberal Democrat Party].

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

	Q16	Q17	Q18
	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrats
	%	%	%
Keeps its promises	6	5	5
Understands the problems facing Britain	21	22	19
Represents all classes	10	21	26
Looks after the interests of people like us	11	12	13
Moderate	14	15	26
Extreme	10	7	2
Concerned about the people in real need in Britain	10	15	21
Has a good team of leaders	6	15	9
Will promise anything to win votes	43	41	13
Out of touch with ordinary people	31	29	5
Has sensible policies	15	13	23
Too dominated by its leader	11	37	4
Professional in its approach	13	11	11
Divided	31	29	3
No opinion	18	13	40

Q19 Which of these statements comes closest to your views of Mr Blair?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

	%
I like him and I like his policies	21
I like him but I dislike his policies	27
I dislike him but I like his policies	9
I dislike him and I dislike his policies	35
No opinion	8
Like Mr Blair	48
Dislike Mr Blair	44
Net like Mr Blair	+4
Like his policies	30
Dislike his policies	62
Net like his policies	-32

Q20 Which of these statements comes closest to your views of Mr Howard?

Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

	%
I like him and I like his policies	16
I like him but I dislike his policies	13
I dislike him but I like his policies	13
I dislike him and I dislike his policies	27
No opinion	31
Like Mr Howard	29
Dislike Mr Howard	40
Net like Mr Howard	-11
Like his policies	29
Dislike his policies	40
Net like his policies	-11

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