Global tensions, domestic pressure
Checking the pulse of the nation
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Greens gain ground
Reform UK still hold a clear lead over Labour: 7 points in March – little changed from January but 8 points down from their 15-point lead in November. The Greens are also on the move, with their vote share increasing 5 percentage points since January, following the Gorton and Denton by-election.
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Rising conflict, rising concern
Over four in five Britons express concern about the impact of the US/Israel-Iran conflict on the UK economy (83%), and specifically the price of fuel/energy (84%, with 49% very concerned).
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Entering the manosphere...
Most Brits believe in the importance of gender equality and the sharing of household roles, but globally 31% of Gen Z men say a wife should always obey her husband - compared with just 13% of Baby Boomer men. However, Gen Z men are also most likely to say successful women are more attractive.
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Global tensions, domestic pressure
Public reaction to the escalating conflict across the Middle East is defined by concerns over military action and a preference for diplomacy, coupled with rising anxiety about its economic consequences at home and for the “special relationship” between the US and UK.
A majority of Britons aren't supportive of US military strikes on Iran, with just over half (56%) of Britons disapproving. This is notably higher than the 43% of US adults who disapproved, in an Ipsos poll in the US (6-9 March). 21% of Britons approve of the strikes, compared to 29% in the US.
Opposition also spans much of the political spectrum, with a majority of 2024 Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats and most other party voters disapproving. Reform UK voters stand apart, with 53% approving of US strikes.
When it comes to leadership, the public is also broadly critical. 60% think Donald Trump is doing a bad job handling the conflict, alongside 41% for the UK Government and 45% for Keir Starmer. This is worse than public perceptions between 2022-25 of how the UK Government was handling the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Perceptions of Trump appear closely tied to attitudes towards military intervention. 61% of Britons believe he is too willing to use force to advance US interests. Views of Starmer are more divided: 30% say he is not willing enough to use force to advance UK interests, 29% say about right, and 12% say too willing.
Meanwhile just 3 in 10 Britons now believe there is currently a special relationship between the US and UK, down from January and back to levels seen just after the imposition of US tariffs last year.
Britons most want to see the UK government using diplomacy to de-escalate the situation, supported by 63%. However, although they are open to economic sanctions against Iran, they are much less likely to support UK military involvement (unless in response to Iranian attacks on British bases).
Rising concerns at home
Whilst Brits disapprove of the conflict, they’re also very concerned about it. We’ve seen a sharp increase in public concern about defence and foreign affairs, in our March Issues Index.
31% of Britons now cite defence and foreign affairs as a major issue, double the score of 15% in February. This is the highest level of concern on the issue since March 2022 (35%) in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
There are widespread concerns about the broader impacts of the conflict:
- 76% are concerned about UK national safety and security,
- 75% about regional stability in the Middle East,
- and 69% about civilians in Iran and neighbouring countries.
A central concern for the public is the economic impact of the war. 84% of Britons are concerned about the impact on fuel and energy prices, while 83% are concerned about the impact on the UK economy.
Ipsos’ Economic Optimism Index asks Britons whether they think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next twelve months, and has been tracking the economic mood of Britons since 1978.
The March results show 75% of Britons expect the economy to get worse, up 11 ppts since last month. 13% (-7) think it will stay the same, and just 9% (-4) think it will improve. This gives a net Ipsos Economic Optimism Index figure of -66, just two points above the historic low of -68 recorded in April 2025.
This is comparable to some of the most challenging economic periods in recent history, including the January 1980 recession under Margaret Thatcher (-64), the global financial crisis of July 2008 under Gordon Brown (-64), and the cost-of-living crisis following the invasion of Ukraine in the final days of Boris Johnson’s premiership in June 2022 (-64).
Defence policy trade-offs
Against this backdrop, there is growing support for increased defence spending. 48% of Britons say spending on defence and the Armed Forces should be increased, up 5 points since April 2025.
However, this support softens significantly when trade-offs are introduced. Only 20% support higher defence spending if it means paying higher taxes, with 51% opposed. Similarly, 25% support increased defence spending if it requires cuts to public services, while 43% oppose.
When it comes to the best party on defence, 33% say they trust the Conservatives at least a fair amount to have the right policies on defence, more than other parties and up 5ppts since February 2025. However, a majority say they don’t trust any of the parties very much on this issue.
The current situation creates a challenging environment for policymakers and for businesses. As the conflict evolves, the government will need to respond to the public’s concerns both domestic and international, especially over the economy and cost of living, as well as to worries over the effects on relations with the US, the UK’s defence role and capabilities, security at home and in the Middle East, and for the civilians affected.
