One in five voters say they are very likely to vote tactically at the next General Election

The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 10th to 16th May, 2023 covers attitudes to tactical voting and possible coalitions.

Tactical voting and the next election

Around one in three (34%) Britons say they are very or fairly likely to vote for a party that is not their first choice at the next General Election to keep another party out. One in five (18%) say they are very likely to do so. Two-thirds (67%) of those likely to vote tactically at the next election say they will do so to keep the Conservatives out, while 22% say they would vote to prevent Labour.

Among likely voters (those who say they are 9/10 certain to vote, and always/usually vote in general elections), 21% say they are very likely to vote tactically.  This is represents 13% of the adult population overall, and is equivalent to just under 7 million people (6.7 million), with a range of 5.2 million to 8.3 million to allow for a margin of error.

Preferred General Election outcome

When asked about their preferred outcome at the next General Election:

•  49% would prefer one party to win a majority.
• 20% would prefer a coalition of more than one party.
• 7% would prefer a minority government where the largest party passes. legislation with the support of smaller parties.
• 20% have no preference, and 4% don’t know.

Who brings chaos in a hung parliament?

Findings elsewhere in this month’s Ipsos Political Monitor show that almost two-thirds of Britons either expect a Labour majority after the next General Election (20%) or a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party (43%). When asked about the possible impact of different outcomes, the public are more likely to say there will be chaos if there is Conservative government elected with no overall majority (54%) than a Labour government with no overall majority (41%), although they are not positive about the prospect of either.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:

After the local elections, tactical voting is becoming a key question in British politics. We aren’t in election mode yet so people’s decisions aren’t fully-formed, but at the moment it is the Conservatives who are looking most vulnerable to voters acting out of negative partisanship to keep one party out.
Furthermore, whilst their attack that a Labour-led coalition would bring chaos does have some traction among their 2019 voters, overall the public are more worried about the prospects of a Conservative-led one. Even among the Conservatives’ own 2019 base, half think a Conservative government with no overall majority would lead to instability.

Technical Note

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,006 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone between the 10th  to 16th May 2023. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. Population estimates are based on the ONS 2021 mid-year estimates of 51,719,000 British adults 18+, and with a margin of error of +3% at the 95% confidence interval.