People underestimate past house price rises
In December last year the public thought, on average, that there had been a 1% rise in the average national house price between October 2014 and October 2015, compared to the reality of 10%
In December last year the public thought, on average, that there had been a 1% rise in the average national house price between October 2014 and October 2015, compared to the reality of 10%.
The findings came from additional questions asked in the latest quarterly Halifax Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT). As well as asking people to estimate what will happen to average prices, the survey asked them how much they thought prices had changed in the 12 months up to October 2015 (when the average price was £205,240).
The survey also asked people about the average property price in 12 months’ time in the area where they live. Just under six in ten, 58%, expect this to rise locally. This compares to 67% who expect a rise in the average UK property price over the next 12 months.
Still, 14% expect a local property price rise of 10% or more, similar to the 13% who think this will happen nationally.
The survey shows marked regional differences, reflecting variations in the housing market, as well as in supply and demand. For example, seven out of ten in London (72%) and the South (71%) think that local property prices will be higher in the next year compared to just half or less in the Midlands (53%) and the North of England (45%). In London, 15% – one in seven – expect prices there to rise by 15% or more.
At the same time, there has been a marked fall in the proportion of Britons who expect mortgage and savings interest rates to be higher in 12 months’ time. Exactly half of Britons (50%) expect mortgage interest rates to be higher, compared to 58% who said this in September 2015.
Technical note
Ipsos interviewed 1,956 British adults aged 16+ face-to-face, between 4th – 18th December 2015 (974 adults for mortgage and savings interest rate questions). Data have been weighted to the known population profile.
October 2014 and 2015 house price figures are according to the Halifax House Price Index. The average public estimate of house price movement was derived by showing respondents potential movements (in percentage and price terms) and then averaging the prices given by all those providing an answer.
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