Polls Confound Sceptics

Confounding their critics, especially those within the Conservative Party who had poured scorn on them throughout the campaign, the opinion polls conducted in the last week of the campaign proved the most accurate since 1987, and the exit polls performed remarkably well.

Association of Professional Opinion Polling Organisations

Confounding their critics, especially those within the Conservative Party who had poured scorn on them throughout the campaign, the opinion polls conducted in the last week of the campaign proved the most accurate since 1987, and the exit polls performed remarkably well. This level of accuracy in the polls was achieved despite the record low level of turnout, which made forecasting far more difficult.

Opinion Polls

The table below shows the result of all polls which were conducted during or after the final weekend of the campaign. Closest to the actual result was ICM's poll for The Guardian.

Fieldwork Sample Company Public Client Con Lab LD Other Con Lab LD Oth Ave
  size   Date   % % % % Err Err Err Err Err
2-3 Jun 1,400 ICM 4-Jun Evening Standard 30 47 18 5 2.7 -5.0 0.8 1.5 2.5
2-3 Jun 1,266 Rasmussen 5-Jun Independent 33 44 16 7 -0.3 -2.0 2.8 -0.5 1.4
2-4 Jun 1,009 ICM 5-Jun Guardian 32 43 19 6 0.7 -1.0 -0.2 0.5 0.6
4-5 Jun 1,010 MORI 7-Jun Economist 31 43 20 6 1.7 -1.0 -1.2 0.5 1.1
5-6 Jun 1,967 MORI 7-Jun Times 30 45 18 7 2.7 -3.0 0.8 -0.5 1.8
6-Jun 2,399 Gallup 7-Jun Telegraph 30 47 18 5 2.7 -5.0 0.8 1.5 2.5
Average share of final opinion polls 31.0 44.8 18.2 6.0 1.8 2.8 1.1 0.8 1.6
Election Result 32.7 42.0 18.8 6.5  
Deviation of poll average from final result in Great Britain 1.7 -2.8 0.6 0.5  
8.6.01 Source: APOPO

The final NOP poll, conducted for the Sunday Times, is not included in the table because the fieldwork was conducted before the last weekend, and is thus outside the traditional "final week" band. The average error on the NOP poll was not surprisingly higher, at 2.6%.

Exit Polls

As at the last election, NOP conducted an exit poll for the BBC, and MORI conducted one for ITN. Both projections proved remarkably accurate, as the table below shows:

Seats Actual result BBC/NOP Projection Difference ITN/MORI Projection Difference
Conservative 166 177 +11 154 -12
Labour 413 408 -5 417 +4
Lib Dem 52 44 -8 58 +6
Other 28 30 +2 30 +2

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