The Brexit vote 10 years on: study shows desire for closer EU relationship - but trade-offs temper rush to rejoin

A decade on from the Brexit vote, the public have become more doubtful that the referendum should ever have taken place and more likely to say Britain should allow free movement for EU citizens in return for Single Market access – though they are still far from a wholesale change of heart, according to a new study marking the 10-year anniversary of the referendum.

The research, by Ipsos, the Policy Institute at King’s College London, and UK in a Changing Europe, compares attitudes today with those in 2016 and at various points since, as well as revealing public opinion on the future shape of the UK-EU relationship and how different policy pledges on the EU could help or hinder the Labour government’s chances at the next general election.

Based on a new representative survey of 2,245 Britons aged 18+, carried out in May, the study finds:

•    43% now say David Cameron was right to hold the EU referendum – down from 66% in 2016. But the share saying it was the wrong decision is still short of a majority, even if it has risen from 24% to 38%.

•    Nearly half (48%) say Brexit is going worse than they expected – up from 28% back in March 2021, while just 9% say it is going better than expected, with around one in three saying it is going as expected (34%).

•    53% now say Britain should allow EU citizens to live and work in the UK in return for Single Market access, up from 42% in 2016

•    …However, when framed as an issue of sovereignty rather than economics, a majority (52%) say they would prioritise full control over immigration, even at the cost of a closer EU relationship – barely changed from views in 2016 (55%).

•    47% want a closer trading relationship with the EU, against just 16% who want a more distant one and 22% who want to keep things the same.

•    60% back a closer security and defence relationship with the EU, with just 8% opposed – a consensus that spans political divides except 2024 Reform UK voters (41%), the only group without majority support for such a move.

•    31% currently say they are likely to consider voting Labour at the next general election. But were Labour to offer a second referendum in its manifesto, this rises to a 45% – the only EU policy pledge tested that makes a meaningful difference to the party’s support, boosting Labour’s appeal among supporters of every other party, even likely Reform UK and Conservative voters (although clear majorities of both would still not consider Labour).

The 2016 referendum: right or wrong?

In the lead-up to the EU referendum in 2016, a majority of 66% of the public thought David Cameron was right to call the vote. 10 years on, this has fallen to 43%, while the share who say it was the wrong decision has risen from 24% to 38%, meaning the nation is now relatively divided on the issue.

In the last 10 years, voters for all major parties have become more likely to say it was wrong to hold the EU referendum. One in five (19%) Reform UK voters also feel this way – compared with just 4% of UKIP voters who said the same in 2016.

And those aged 55+ are now the only age group still more likely to say David Cameron was right (51%) rather than wrong (34%) to hold the referendum.

A second referendum?

There is still not majority backing for a second referendum in the next five years: nearly half (48%) now support one, including three in 10 (28%) who strongly support another vote. This compares to a quarter (27%) who oppose one.

18-34s (56%) are the only age group with a majority who back a second referendum – though nearly half (49%) of 35-54s also back another vote. Two-thirds (67%) of 2024 Labour voters support one, compared with 15% who are opposed.

62% of 2024 Lib Dems also support another referendum, as do one in five (20%) Reform UK voters.

And while three-quarters (73%) of Remain voters back a second referendum, so do one in four (25%) Leave voters. Opposition to another vote is 12% among Remain voters and 55% among Leave voters.

Perceptions of the Brexit process

In March 2021, 27% felt Britain’s exit from the EU was working out worse than they predicted. Five years later, this has risen to 48% – for the first time slightly greater than the 43% of the public who feel Brexit is going about as well as (34%), or better than (9%), expected.

The future relationship

Closer or more distant?

47% say the government should seek closer relations with the EU – higher than the share who say relations should become more distant (16%) or stay the same (22%).

Labour (66%) and Lib Dem (61%) voters are most likely to prefer closer relations, although nearly two in five (37%) Conservatives and around one in five (21%) Reform UK voters would also like to strengthen links with the EU. However, four in 10 (40%) Reform voters still think they should be more distant.

Support for specific forms of closer alignment is broadly consistent – between 38% and 40% of the public back aligning with EU rules on goods, energy and agriculture in return for easier trade, against 24-26% opposed.

Immigration

Support for allowing EU citizens to live and work in Britain in exchange for Single Market access has grown in the last 10 years.

53% of the public now agree Britain should allow immigration from the EU in return for improved access to the Single Market – up from 42% a decade ago, before the referendum was held – compared with 31% who think missing out on this access is worth it to stop EU citizens living and working in Britain.

There is a similar balance of opinion on a return to free movement specifically in exchange for easier trade – 49% are in favour, against 21% opposed.

But when framed as an issue of sovereignty rather than economics, the public still prioritise more control on immigration over a closer relationship with the EU.

The share who prefer a closer relationship with the EU, even if it means less control over immigration from the bloc, has risen slightly, from 33% to 38% since 2016 – but a majority (52%) still prefer total border control and a more limited relationship with the EU, similar to a decade ago (55%)

The security and defence partnership

People are twice as likely to say the EU (30%), rather than the USA (14%), is the more important security partner for the UK – though the most common response is that both are equally important (46%).

Six in 10 (60%) people overall support greater collaboration with the EU on security and defence, with just 8% opposed.

And Reform UK (41%) voters are the only group without majority support for a closer relationship in this area, while most Conservatives (63%) and Leave (53%) voters are in favour.

Changing UK-EU relations: vote winner or vote loser for Labour?

31% of the public currently say they are likely to consider voting Labour at the next general election, while double this share – 62% – say they are not.

But were Labour to offer a second referendum in its manifesto, this shifts to a 45% to 43% split in favour of considering voting for the party.

The study suggests this would be the most effective EU policy pledge the government could make, boosting Labour’s appeal among supporters of every other party.

A referendum pledge raises the share who would consider Labour by a consistent 13 to 16 points among every group – even among likely Conservative voters (from 26% to 41%) and likely Reform UK voters (from 18% to 31%). Though majorities of both groups would still not consider voting Labour.

Among all other potential pledges tested, the share of the public who say it would encourage them to consider voting for the party is outweighed by the share who say it would not.

For example, promising to rejoin the EU without a referendum would make 36% likely to consider voting Labour, compared with 51% who say it would make them less likely to.

The status quo – staying firmly out the Single Market and Customs Union, with no free movement – is the least enticing option of all, with just 27% saying it would encourage them to vote for Labour, compared with 53% who say it would not.

Keiran Pedley, Research Director at Ipsos, said:

These findings show that there is significant public support for a closer relationship between the UK and EU – especially on matters of national security and defence – but as ever public attitudes are complex and Brexit continues to divide opinion. On face value there is openness to greater alignment and rule taking to facilitate a stronger trading relationship but arguments about sovereignty – especially when it comes to immigration – remain persuasive. What is particularly striking from these findings is the warmth among Labour voters to closer ties – which may becomes a significant political issue as debates about the Labour leadership continue.

Professor Bobby Duffy, Director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, said:

As we approach the 10-year anniversary of Brexit, more people now say it was wrong to hold the referendum than felt that way back in 2016, and the share of the public who think Brexit is going worse than they expected has grown – but on both counts, those views still haven’t reached a majority. Support for a second referendum and calls for a closer relationship with the EU also remain just below 50%. After 10 years of political turbulence and economic concern about the consequences of leaving, what’s perhaps most notable is how glacially slowly opinions have shifted – at this rate, it’ll be many more years before we get to a clearcut demand for change.

Professor Anand Menon, Director of UK in a Changing Europe, said:

There is no easy option when it comes to the EU relationship. Each carries clear trade-offs, particularly between regulatory freedom and ease of EU trade. Understanding these should be the starting point for any discussion on future EU policy.

ENDS

Notes to editors

Read the full report, 10 years of Brexit: views on the referendum and the future UK-EU relationship

Survey details
Ipsos, in partnership with King's College London and UK in a Changing Europe, interviewed a representative sample of 2,245 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted online between the 15-20th May 2026. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.

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