Post-Brexit dip in House Price Outlook

The latest Halifax Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT) shows a 14 point fall in the Halifax House Price Outlook, down from +56 in March to +42 in October 2016. This is the lowest the measure has been since June 2013, continuing a declining trend following a high point in Spring 2015.

This figure is driven by a 6 point increase in expectations of a fall in the average UK house price in 12 months’ time (up from 9% in April) and a 8 point decrease in expectations of a higher average (down from 65% in April). At the same time, the proportion saying they ‘don’t know’ has almost halved; now at 7% from 13% in the Spring.

 

Buying sentiment has dropped slightly by 1 point from +18 in April while selling sentiment is now at its lowest since September 2013 with a fall from +31 to +9.

The survey was the 26th undertaken by Ipsos for Halifax since its inception in April 2011. Over that time the House Price Outlook has been positive on all but one occasion. And while buying sentiment has changed comparatively little, selling sentiment has improved as expectations have risen about house price rises. Since April 2011, the average UK house price has risen from £160,785 (April 2011) to £213,930 (October 2016) according to Halifax.

The EU referendum has had little impact on the behaviour of buyers and sellers; 15% of those who were buying or selling a house before the referendum say that it has changed their minds leading them to cancel or postpone plans. However, 45% of the wider public believe that house prices will be affected by Brexit; a fifth (20%) expect prices will be higher in 12 months’ time because Britain votes to Leave, and a quarter (25%) expect them to be lower because of this.

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Technical note

Ipsos interviewed 3,888 British adults aged 16+ face-to-face, between 23 September and 19 October 2016. Data have been weighted to the known population profile.