Public more likely to see James Cleverly as PM than other Conservative leadership candidates – but none score highly

• Britons more likely to say Cleverly most likely candidate to become Prime Minister post Conservative Party conference
• But more than one in four Britons say they don’t know and a similar number say none of the candidates will make Number 10.

The latest Ipsos Political Pulse, taken 4th-7th October, explores attitudes towards the remaining candidates in the Conservative Party leadership race. 

Most likely to become Prime Minister 

When asked which leadership candidate would be most likely to become Prime Minister if they become Conservative leader, one in five Britons say James Cleverly (21%) marking a 7-point increase since late September 2024 before Conservative Party conference. Robert Jenrick trails behind at 10%, with Tom Tugendhat and Kemi Badenoch at 7% each. The main shift here being between those saying don’t know (-6) and those saying Mr Cleverly is most likely (+7).

However, more than one in four still say they don’t know (27%) and 28% think none of the candidates are likely to become Prime Minister.

 
Favourability ratings

In terms of favourability towards the different candidates there has not been much change since the last Ipsos Political Pulse in September. One in five or less have favourable opinions of each candidate. However, Kemi Badenoch’s figures have worsened slightly with a 6 point increase in the proportion of Britons holding an unfavourable opinion of her meaning she has a net favourability score of -26 this month compared to -18 in September. Similarly, Robert Jenrick has also seen a 6 point increase in the percentage of Britons that hold an unfavourable view, with his net favourable score falling from -16 to -24. James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat have similar net favourable scores, with Cleverly having slightly better favourable figures but slightly worse unfavourable figures.

Keiran Pedley, UK Director of Politics at Ipsos, said:

"The conventional wisdom after the Conservative Party conference was that James Cleverly had emerged best and there are some signs of this in the data, given there has been an increase in the proportion of Britons that think he is the most likely Conservative candidate to become Prime Minister. However, with a majority of Britons either unsure, or saying they expect none of the candidates to make Number 10, whoever the new leader is will face a difficult challenge convincing the public the party is ready for government again given the scale of defeat the party suffered in July”.

•    Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,133 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone between the 4th-7th October 2024. 
•    Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.