A Reform-ation of the Map?

A Reform-ation of the Map? Navigating the 2026 Local and Devolved Elections

With the 2026 local and devolved elections fast approaching, the UK political landscape looks less like a two-horse race and more like a crowded field. Ipsos recently hosted our latest 'Beyond the Bubble' webinar, bringing together Sir John Curtice (Strathclyde University), Gideon Skinner (Ipsos in the UK), and Emily Gray (Ipsos in Scotland) to dissect a landscape defined by voter volatility and the steady erosion of the traditional duopoly.

The overarching takeaway? We are witnessing a fundamental fragmentation of British politics that transcends simple "protest voting."

The End of the "Big Two" Dominance?

The most striking trend identified by the panel is the decline of Labour and Conservative dominance, the rise of Reform UK and the Greens and the potential for nationalist parties to win in both Scotland and Wales, all demonstrating the shift towards a multiparty system.

• Gideon presented Ipsos polling, showing significant drops in vote share for Labour and the Conservatives across Britain since 2022 and 2024, with both parties losing voters to Reform, the Greens and the Lib Dems at different rates.
• Both Reform UK and the Greens have gained approximately 10 points since the last General Election with Reform drawing substantial support from former Conservative voters and Greens challenging Labour, especially in London.
• Sir John described how, unlike previous insurgent movements, Reform and the Greens are fielding candidates in over 90% of contests in the English local election, indicating a more substantive shift from the traditional two-party system to a more multipolar environment.
• Voter uncertainty remains high, as noted by both Gideon and Emily. While Reform voters appear the most committed, a large swathe of the electorate remains undecided, and no party receives enthusiastic backing from a majority.

Regional Battlegrounds: Where the Map Could Flip

The discussion highlighted specific geographic flashpoints where the national trend of fragmentation will meet local reality:

1 - England: The Reform and Green Squeeze

In England, the focus is on a wide range of geographies, from London boroughs to northern Mets to county councils in the East and South East, and Professor Curtice highlighted three key battlegrounds. Reform is expected to make significant inroads in traditional Labour "pro-Leave" strongholds like Barnsley, Gateshead, and Sunderland, as well as from the Conservatives in Leave-voting eastern counties of Essex, Norfolk, and Suffolk. Meanwhile, the Greens are increasingly positioning themselves as the primary challengers to Labour among younger, Remain-leaning voting professionals in London.

2 - Scotland: A Familiar Driver at the Wheel but Change Under the Bonnet

Emily Gray provided in-depth analysis at the Scottish outlook. While the SNP is set to remain the largest party, with a clear lead in both constituency and regional list votes. But, their lead is coupled with low public expectations regarding their delivery on the economy and the NHS.

• The Battle for Second: Scottish Labour and Reform UK are currently neck-and-neck for the runner-up spot - with Labour potentially facing its worst ever showing, unless it improves its vote share during the campaign.
• Independence vs. Delivery: Independence has slipped down the public’s stated priority list compared to issues like the NHS and cost of living, but views on independence still play an important part in defining the different voter blocs in Scotland. And the outcome of the election could still impact calls for a referendum, with nationalist parties potentially becoming the largest in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

3 - Wales: Labour on the Defensive

In Wales, the narrative of "Welsh Labour dominance" is under threat.

• New Ipsos polling shows Welsh Labour falling back from its traditional dominant position, with Plaid Cymru and Reform gaining support, and Plaid picking up about one in four Labour voters.
• However, Reform is noted for efficiently converting potential supporters into actual voters, with their voter base being the most committed and least likely to change their minds.
• Six in ten Welsh voters believe the Labour government does not deserve re-election, and practical issues like the NHS, cost of living, jobs and the economy and the state of roads and pavements are prioritised over constitutional matters.
• Sir John emphasised that the contest is now primarily between Plaid and reform, with Labour playing a diminished role - and the outcome remains uncertain.

Not Just Potholes: The Drivers of Voter Choice

While constitutional questions (independence in Scotland and Wales) remain relevant, a combination of the national mood and practical delivery on national and local issues are the primary drivers of current voter behaviour.

• Gideon explained that while local issues such as potholes are important, national issues like the cost of living, NHS, and immigration, as well as attitudes towards the national parties, also heavily influence voting behaviour, especially among those considering Reform or Greens.
• Unfortunately for Labour, they are finding themselves the target of public frustration regarding the state of public services at both the national and the local level, yet no single party has convinced the electorate they have a definitive solution.

The Activist Gap

Britain’s future politics will also be changed by the impact the elections have on party activism. Sir John Curtice pointed out that as Reform and the Greens expand their local footprints, the "ground game" advantage traditionally held by Labour and the Conservatives is evaporating.

Winning council seats creates a more permanent local presence, serving as local activists and strengthening the party organisation. If the 2026 elections result in a significant influx of Reform and Green councillors, it embeds them more long-term, and makes the return of the two-party system as we know it much less likely.

Starmer’s Survival

The results of the 2026 local and devolved elections will likely serve as a pivotal moment for Keir Starmer’s leadership. Current Ipsos data reveals a stark backdrop: 50% of Britons already believe he should stand down as Prime Minister, and 68% consider it unlikely he will win the next General Election. While Labour currently maintains a nine-point lead over Reform UK in a forced choice over who Britons would prefer to see forming the next government, Starmer’s personal net favourability of -40 contrasts with the public’s identification of Andy Burnham as the preferred alternative for leader.

The underlying challenge facing Keir Starmer remains the same - how to address the 67% of Britons who think the country is moving in the wrong direction, and who don’t see the change they were hoping for since Labour was elected. But for a Prime Minister already battling high levels of unfavourable sentiment, if the predicted fragmentation of the political landscape translates into significant losses of council control and a historically weak showing in the devolved nations, the post-election fallout will be a decisive test of whether his party believes he has the answer in an increasingly multipolar UK.