Satisfaction with First Minister slips though the SNP remains dominant

As the debate on the independence referendum intensifies, our latest poll reveals a fall in satisfaction with the First Minister although the SNP lead over Labour continues to grow. Alex Salmond continues to be the most popular party leader in Scotland. However, net satisfaction with the First Minister has fallen by 13% since December 2011; 58% of Scots are currently satisfied with the way he is doing his job, while 36% are dissatisfied, a net rating of +22%, compared to a net rating of +35% in December. While SNP supporters remain firmly behind the First Minister (94% satisfied), levels of dissatisfaction among supporters of other parties has grown considerably in the last two months; among Labour supporters, dissatisfaction with the First Minister has risen by 10-points (to 47%), while 70% of Conservative supporters and 48% of Liberal Democrat supporters are now dissatisfied (up by 14-points and 8-points respectively) Despite the fall in satisfaction rating with the First Minister, the SNP continues to dominate in the poll, increasing its lead over Labour. Among those certain to vote, almost half (49%) would back the SNP in an election to the Scottish Parliament, down by two percentage points from our last poll in December 2011. Support for Scottish Labour has continued to fall, now standing at 23%, down three points from December. The other two opposition parties have seen modest increases in support; Conservative support is now at 13% (up one point from December) while Liberal Democrat support has increased by two points and now stands at 10%.

For the three opposition parties, each of whom has a relatively new leader, the main issue continues to be one of public recognition. At least four in ten Scots are unable to judge the performance of all three opposition leaders (40% for Labour’s Johann Lamont, 44% for Conservative leader Ruth Davidson and 44% for Willie Rennie, leader of the Liberal Democrats). A third of Scots (32%) are satisfied with job being done by Prime Minister David Cameron, while 60% are dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction rating of -28%, similar to the -31% rating from August 2011.

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Mark Diffley, Research Director at Ipsos said:

‘The growing public criticism of Alex Salmond’s performance comes entirely from supporters of opposition parties and may reflect wider opinions about the referendum debate which is now firmly at the top of the political agenda. Despite this downturn in satisfaction with the First Minister, the SNP maintains a healthy lead in the poll, leading Labour by 26 points. This means that satisfaction with the First Minister and support for the SNP are closer now than in recent polls where his personal popularity has far outweighed that of his party.’

Technical Note

• Results are based on a survey of 1,005 respondents conducted by telephone between 27th January and 29th January 2012
• Data are weighted by age, sex and working status using census data, and tenure using SHS 2007-2008 data, and by public-private sector employment by Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Series data.
• An asterisk (*) indicates a percentage of less than 0.5% but greater than 0.
• Where results do not sum to 100, this may be due to multiple responses or computer rounding.
• Where the base size is less than 30 the number (N) rather than the percentage of respondents is given.