A Shock To The System
MORI's first poll of the General Election, published in the Financial Times on the day the election was called from fieldwork the previous weekend caused a shock to the system, as there was a warning in it for all three major political parties. For the record, Populus in the Times had Conservatives at 35%, Labour at 37%, Lib Dems at 19% and others at 9%. NOP in the Independent had Conservatives at 33%, Labour at 36%, Lib Dems at 21% and others at 10%. ICM in the Guardian had Conservatives at 34%, Labour at 37%, Lib Dems at 21% and others at 8%.
Labour would be shocked by the largest Conservative share of the vote for many months, at 39%, among those 55% of the electorate who said they were "absolutely certain to vote", and by the finding that four in ten of Labour supporters said they might change their mind between now and May 5th.
The Conservatives will have been shocked by knowing that on every measure, from their ability to conduct a good campaign to having the best policies and leader they were well behind Labour, and by the finding that a third of their supporters were "waiverers" and might switch by polling day.
The Liberal Democrats were shocked to find that half of their intending voters, 50%, said the might switch, so that even at 21%, half their vote is fragile, and that even prompted, still only 21% supported them, and if the turnout went up, their share didn't rise by much.
But there's good news in the poll's results also for all three parties. For Labour, that Blair is by 14 points thought to be a more capable leader than Howard. For the Conservatives, that they are in with a chance, and for the Liberal Democrats that they are starting from a base two or three points higher than they finished in 2001.
The much hyped gender gap once again seems to be missing in this first poll of the election. I haven't seen the details of the other three polls published on the day the election was called, but in this poll of 1,001 people interviewed 1-3 April, women at 54% "certain" are not statistically less likely to be certain to vote than men, 56% of whom say they are certain to vote, only marginally more likely to admit to possibly changing their minds, 39% of men and 43% of women, and certainly not either more likely to support the Conservatives, 39% of men and 38% of women, nor are they more likely than men to favour Michael Howard than men, 22% each.
Where there is a striking difference is in thinking Tony Blair would make the most capable Prime Minister. For while 42% of men say that Tony Blair would be their choice for being the most capable of the three party leaders, only 31% of women share that view. Among men, 23% say they don't know (or think none of them) would make the most capable PM while 33% of women say they don't know. Tony, you've got a problem with women, but they are ready to be convinced; it's not that they're in love with Michael or Charles, but that they're not in love with you either.
