Times Election Poll 1992, Week 3

Data on likelihood to vote, voting intention, interest in the campaign, taxation and important issues, two weeks before voting in the 1992 election.

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,109 adults aged 18+ at 55 constituency sampling points across Great Britain. Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face, in street, on 23 March 1992, and the results published in The Times on 25 March 1992. Data were weighted to match the profile of the population.

Q1 How do you intend to vote in the General Election on April 9? (If undecided or refused at Q1) Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

  %
Conservative 38
Labour 41
Liberal Democrats 17
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
Other *
(Excludes 14% would not vote, undecided or refused)

Q3 From this card, can you tell me how likely you are to get along to vote in the General Election?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Certain not to vote 6 3 2 2
Not very likely to vote 3 2 2 1
Quite likely to vote 8 8 7 10
Very likely to vote 10 11 9 11
Certain to vote 72 75 80 74
Don't know 1 * 1 1

Q4 I'm going to read out a list of problems facing Britain today and for each one I would like you to tell me whether the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrat or some other party has the best policy on each problem.

  Con Lab LD Other None/ don't know
Defence % 46 19 5 1 29
Education % 25 39 15 1 20
Europe % 35 25 9 1 30
Managing the economy % 34 30 9 1 26
Health care % 22 52 8 1 17
Housing % 23 45 8 1 23
Law & Order % 36 22 7 1 34
Northern Ireland % 24 16 5 1 54
Replacing the poll tax % 20 14 12 1 23
Taxation % 37 32 12 1 18
Unemployment % 19 43 9 2 27

Q5 How much will you be influenced, if at all, in the way you vote at the General Election by the policies of the political parties on each of the following?

  A great deal A fair amount Just a little Not at all Don't know
Defence % 19 28 21 29 3
Education % 41 25 9 21 4
Europe % 19 31 19 27 4
Managing the economy % 45 26 6 19 4
Health care % 55 20 6 17 2
Housing % 38 29 10 20 3
Law & Order % 40 28 10 19 3
Northern Ireland % 16 23 23 32 6
Replacing the poll tax % 42 25 10 20 3
Taxation % 39 28 9 20 4
Unemployment % 49 22 8 19 2

Q6a If you thought that the Liberal Democrats were likely to win in this constituency, then how would you vote in the General Election on April 9? Q6b (If undecided or refused at Q6a) Which party would you be most inclined to vote for?

  %
Conservative 29
Labour 28
Liberal Democrats 41
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 1
Green Party 1
Other *
(Excludes 10% would not vote, undecided or refused)

Q7 As far as you know, do you live in a marginal constituency, or not? That is, was the result of the last general election quite close in this area, or not?

  %
Yes, marginal, result close 22
No, not marginal, MP won easily 50
Don't know 28

Q8a I'd like you to think about the total amount you pay in taxes. Do you think you would end up paying most in tax under a Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democrat government? Q8b And under which party do you think government spending on public services, such as health, education and social services would be highest?

  Pay most in tax Government spending highest
  % %
Conservative 23 14
Labour 55 66
Liberal Democrat 7 8
Other 0 1
Same 6 2
Don't know 10 9

Q9a What do you think the impact of Labour's tax and spending plans would be on you?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Very bad 14 29 1 13
Fairly bad 21 34 7 19
Neither bad nor good 32 24 35 42
Fairly good 21 5 40 16
Very good 5 * 12 2
No opinion 7 8 4 7

Q9b And what do you think the impact of Labour's tax and spending plans would be on the average family?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Very bad 9 17 1 9
Fairly bad 22 40 6 22
Neither bad nor good 25 20 23 30
Fairly good 33 14 57 31
Very good 5 1 11 2
No opinion 7 8 2 6

Q9c And what do you think the impact of Labour's tax and spending plans would be on the well-off?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Very bad 34 57 15 34
Fairly bad 34 23 42 37
Neither bad nor good 14 9 19 17
Fairly good 7 4 11 6
Very good 4 2 7 2
No opinion 6 5 5 3

Q10a Have you received a poll tax/community charge bill for 1992?

  %
Yes 36
No 62
Don't know 2

(If "No" at Q10a) Q10b Are you expecting to receive a poll tax bill for 1992 Base: Those who have not yet received a poll tax/community charge bill (713)

  %
Yes 94
No 3
Don't know 2

Q11a Do you think the amount to be paid in poll tax in 1992 in this area is too high, too low or about right?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Too high 57 40 70 56
Too low 2 1 2 2
About right 34 51 23 36
Don't know 7 8 6 6

Q11b Will/has the arrival of a poll tax bill for 1992 make/made you more likely to vote Conservative, less likely, or will it make no difference?

  %
More likely 4
Less likely 20
No difference 76
Don't know 1

Q12a From this card which of the following comes closest to your views? Q12b And which of these best describes the actual way the election is being fought?

  Should be fought Is being fought
  % %
The election should be/is being fought by the parties putting forward their own policies and personalities 68 12
The election should be/is being fought by the parties pointing out what is wrong with the policies and personalities in other parties 9 62
Both of these 14 15
Neither of these 6 5
Don't know 4 6

Q13 May I ask you which of the things on this list you have done in the last two or three years?

  %
Presented my views to a local councillor or MP 15
Written a letter to an editor 7
Urged someone outside my family to vote 20
Urged someone to get in touch with a local councillor or MP 20
Made a speech before an organised group 8
Been elected an officer of an organisation or club 8
Stood for public office 1
Taken an active part in a political campaign 4
Helped on fund-raising drives 22
Voted in a local election 67
None of these 19

(To all working full-time or part-time) Q14 Do you work in the public or private sector?

  %
Public sector (i.e. local or central government, state education, public transport, public health care, state-owned industry or service/local government) 36
Private sector (privately owned industry or services, private health or education etc) 61
Don't know 2

Q15 Do you think that Mrs Thatcher's entry into the campaign will help or harm the Conservatives' chances of re-election, or will it make no difference?

  All Con Lab LD
  % % % %
Help 28 45 18 22
Harm 30 16 44 33
Make no difference 35 30 35 39
Don't know 7 9 4 6

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