Welsh AMs believe Scottish independence would lead to greater powers devolved to Wales

A new survey of Welsh Assembly Members conducted by Ipsos finds that two-thirds (65%) of AMs believe that Scottish independence would lead to greater powers being granted to the Senedd.

AMs are divided as to whether Scottish independence would mean more or less support amongst the general public towards Wales following suit and becoming an independent country. While a third (35%) of AMs believe a ‘yes’ vote in Scotland would lead to increased calls for Welsh independence, a quarter (23%) believe support would go down following Scottish independence.

Most AMs (79%) don’t believe that Scottish independence will have an effect on the Welsh economy or on the share of the budget currently allocated to Wales from Westminster. Whilst most AMs (58%) believe that should Scotland become independent nation, there will be no change to the budget allocated from Westminster, there are some who believe that it will either lead to an increased budget being allocated to Wales (22%) or to a reduction in the budget (14%).

However, the vast majority of AMs across all parties (84%) are of the view that the Barnett formula should be scrapped, regardless of whether Scotland becomes independent or not.

The Senedd is divided in terms of the implications on the strength of the relationship between the Welsh and Scottish governments. Whilst 37% say the relationship will grow stronger as a result of Scottish independence, 32% think it will grow weaker.

Milorad Ajder, Head of Ipsos’s Reputation Centre, said;

“It is interesting to see that Assembly Members see a clear political impact of an independent Scotland. 65% think that Scotland’s potential future status will directly lead to a greater devolution of power to the Senedd. However, when one puts a yes vote through the economic prism members see little or no impact. Regardless of these issues, the Welsh Assembly clearly wants to see a new funding deal based on the abolition of the Barnett formula – something which would clearly have implications for all parts of the UK.”

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Technical Note

This presents some findings of the 2014 study of members of the National Assembly for Wales, part of Ipsos’s programme of regular multi-sponsored studies among key audiences

• Methodology details:
  • Fieldwork dates: 5 June – 12 August 2014
  • Total number of respondents: 25 (Labour 7, Conservative 8, Plaid Cymru 6 and Liberal Democrats 4)
  • All Assembly Members (AMs) were contacted to ensure that those interviewed closely represent the profile of the National Assembly
  • Interviews were conducted face-to-face
• The total sample interviewed is closely representative of the Senedd. Based on those asked each question, data have been weighted to reflect the true balance by party
• Given the small base sizes throughout the report, results should be regarded as indicative rather than fully representative
• Publication of results: Any publication of the results contained within this document should make reference to:
  • The survey was conducted by Ipsos
  • The dates of fieldwork were 5 June – 12 August 2014
  • The sample size was 25 Assembly Members
  • All interviews were conducted face-to-face with Assembly Members