American public split on Trump removal from Colorado, Maine ballots

ABC News/Ipsos poll finds majority support criminal charges against Trump; fewer support Biden impeachment inquiry

The author(s)
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Johnny Sawyer Research Manager, US, Public Affairs
  • Charlie Rollason Research Manager, US, Public Affairs
  • Sarah Feldman Senior Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs
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Washington DC, January 14, 2024— Ahead of the Iowa caucuses, Republican or Republican-leaning Americans report being most satisfied with Donald Trump as the Republican nominee for president, new ABC News/Ipsos polling finds. Trump outperforms other Republican candidates, like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Retrospectively, two in five Americans approve of Trump’s job as president, while President Joe Biden nets a 33% approval rating from Americans.

Detailed findings:

  1. Roughly three in four Republicans (72%) would be satisfied with Trump being the Republican nominee for president in 2024. That’s followed by 61% of Republicans being satisfied with Ron DeSantis, 48% being satisfied with Nikki Haley, and 44% being satisfied with Vivek Ramaswamy. Less than one in four Republicans would be satisfied with Chris Christie or Asa Hutchinson. Christie dropped out of the race while the poll was field.
  2. Looking back, about two in five Americans (41%) approve of the way Trump handled his job when he was president. When asked how President Biden is handing his job, just 33% of Americans approve, sitting at a low. The president scores low approval ratings for his job handling the economy (31%), the war between Israel and Hamas (26%), and the immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border (18%).
  3. Roughly one in four Americans (27%) say the American Dream, defined as "if you work hard, you’ll get ahead," still holds true. In September 2010, 50% of Americans said the American Dream still holds true. Now, more Americans feel that the American Dream once held true but does not anymore (52% in January 2024 vs. 43% in September 2010). More now also feel the American Dream of working hard and getting ahead never held true (18% in January 2024 vs. 4% September 2010).

Washington, DC, January 12, 2024 — Though a slim majority of Americans support bringing criminal charges against Donald Trump, fewer support him being removed from the presidential primary ballots in Colorado and Maine, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll. If the U.S. Supreme Court does review the rulings in these states, a plurality of Americans believe they should allow Trump to remain on the ballot in all states.

Graphs with the headline, "Slim majority of Americans believe the U.S. Supreme Court will judge Trump based on the law."

 

Detailed Findings:

  1. Forty-nine percent of Americans support the rulings in Colorado and Maine to order Trump off the ballot, compared to 46% who oppose.
  2. However, a smaller number, 39%, believe the Supreme Court should make the decision to allow Trump to remain on the ballot as a candidate for president in all states. Roughly a quarter of Americans would put the decision in the hands of the states, allowing election officials to determine whether or not Trump should be included on their state’s ballot. Thirty percent believe the Supreme Court should order Trump to be removed from the ballot in all states, an attitude held primarily by those who identify as Democrats.
  3. While the public remains split on Trump’s presence on primary election ballots, there is more clear support for criminal charges that have been brought against him related to illegally overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election and retaining classified documents after leaving office. Overall, 56% of Americans support these criminal charges and 39% oppose.
  4. On the other hand, 44% support the impeachment inquiry against President Biden, while 51% oppose it.

About the Study

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted January 4 to 8, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 2, 228 adults age 18 or older.

Twenty-seven respondents were removed from the data for either refusing to answer all eligible questions or for completing the survey within 1% fastest completion durations among the samples of Democrats or Republicans, if the respondent reported identifying with either group.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. One reminder email was sent for this study.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, language dominance, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Language dominance benchmarks are from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS). Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls. The weighting categories were as follows:

  • Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
  • Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
  • Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor and beyond)
  • Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
  • Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
  • Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
  • Language Dominance (English dominant, Bilingual, Spanish dominant, non-Hispanic)
  • Party ID (Democrat, Republican, Independent, Something else, DK/Skipped)

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.2. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson

Senior Vice President, US

Public Affairs

+1 202 420-2025

[email protected]

Mallory Newall

Vice President, US

Public Affairs

+1 202 374-2613

[email protected]

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com

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The author(s)
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Johnny Sawyer Research Manager, US, Public Affairs
  • Charlie Rollason Research Manager, US, Public Affairs
  • Sarah Feldman Senior Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs

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