Another day, another indictment
Former President Donald Trump’s second criminal indictment is in, and the response so far has been unsurprising.
As he has for the past two election cycles, Trump still retains support from the majority of the Republican base. Two criminal indictments have done little to siphon off that support, even amid a growing field of Republican candidates. But why?
Below are five charts showing how Americans view the latest Trump indictment and how Trump is maintaining support among Republicans in spite of it.
- More of the same. More Americans sees the latest indictment as more serious than the last. Even so, there has been no change in the number of Americans who think Trump should have been charged with a crime. Some things change, other things stay the same.
- Two realities. The vast majority of Americans, including Republicans, say they think Trump isn’t above the law. This might seem counterintuitive given that his level of support hasn’t been rocked after being handed two criminal indictments. Republicans view these charges differently than the rest of America. Why? It is the tale of Two Americas.
- Believability. One reason Republican support has not wavered: they don’t find the charges believable. The rest of America seems to think they are. Two Americas.
- Familiar pattern. There’s more to why Trump retains his grasp among Republicans. Trump has characterized the charges as politically motivated, and his base is all ears. Taken together, we have a party that wants their leader to be held to the same standard as anyone else, but simply does not trust or believe any of the charges he’s received. Again, two Americas. One blue; the other red.
- Murky waters ahead. Despite two indictments, Trump still maintains a hold on the Republican party. But after seeing his support among Republicans rise after the first indictment, it has started returning to pre-indictment levels. As these cases progress and as other candidates attempt to make their case to dethrone Trump, will that change? We will see.
Even dating back to 2016, Trump’s road to the White House has seemed to face scandal after scandal. Data from this latest indictment paints a picture of how this happens: On paper, Republicans say they don’t think Trump deserves special treatment or is above the law, but they distrust or outright don’t believe the accusations leveled against him.
It is of course far too early to make definitive predictions about how the 2024 presidential election will turn out. One thing that seems certain though: it’ll take more than a criminal indictment or two to dethrone Trump.
