AP/Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: Bush In Significant Lead Over Kerry

Washington, D.C. -- With six weeks remaining to Election Day, President George W. Bush continues to lead Senator John Kerry among likely voters, and now by a significant margin (52%-45%). Bush's 7-point lead is two points greater than Bush's lead two weeks ago (+5). Bush leads among men (57% Bush, 40% Kerry), and the candidates are essentially tied among women (47% Bush, 48% Kerry). Democrats will need to rely on a strong vote among women to overcome the traditional Republican strength with men. However, Kerry's strength with women is narrowly based: he wins 48% of all women's votes, including 57% of the vote of unmarried women, but 42% among married women who are likely voters. Bush has expanded support among his base groups and there's not much more room for growth among this constituency. But at 52% support among likely voters, he does not need much more growth, he just needs to hold on to the vote from the base groups that he wins overwhelmingly. Bush now wins among:

• 76% of white evangelical Protestants,
• 68% of rural voters,
• 65% of the vote in Texas and surrounding "Oil States" region,
• 63% of white men,
• 61% of suburban men (while Kerry wins suburban women).

Support for both candidates is very definite and few voters remain persuadable at all: more than eight in ten Bush and Kerry voters say their decision is definite. Just 22% of likely voters are at all persuadable--soft supporters of one of the two candidates or undecided on how they will cast their vote. That narrow group, one-in-five voters, hold the balance of the election in their hands, and they currently lean 47% Kerry to 38% Bush--a sign Kerry will close the gap, but not by enough to win the election. Bush Approval Ratings Positive Among likely voters, ratings of Bush's overall performance remain very narrowly in the positive range (54% approve, 46% disapprove). These numbers are a net +4 improvement for Bush over the past two weeks. Bush gets majority approval on foreign policy and the war on terrorism (55%-45%), which has been his strongest point throughout the campaign. Half (53%) approve of his handling of the economy (46% disapprove). Continued positive consumer sentiment (measured in AP/Ipsos CASH Index poll) allows Bush to enjoy generally improving scores on his handling of the economy. He gets divided marks on handling domestic issues (50%-49%) and Iraq (51%-48%). [+] click to enlarge The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between September 20-22, 2004, the AP/Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,541 adults nationwide, including 916 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 for all adults, +/- 2.7 for registered voters, and +/- 3.2% for likely voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher. To view the complete filled-in questionnaire for this survey, please click on the Topline Results pdf at the top of this page. To view the very latest "President Bush's Approval Ratings", "Approval Rating On Specific Issues" and the newly added "Head-to-Head: Bush-Cheney vs. Kerry-Edwards vs. Nader-Camejo", please click on the pdf versions at the top of this page. For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and reactions of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting and modeling and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2003, Ipsos generated global revenues of $644.2 million U.S. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP