Have the first four Republican debates meant anything?

The 2015 Republican debates were can’t-miss TV. Those were the moments when the then-business magnate and celebrity Donald Trump dominated the debate stage with a series of electric, yet polarizing performances that would eventually catapult him into the White House.

Eight years later, the scene sure is different. The first four Republican debates may have been electric – Trump-like, almost. But absent Trump, the rest of the presidential hopefuls have been left in the awkward position of jostling for second place.

What can we make of these debates? Below are five charts on the state of the Republican primary, how the first four debates have panned out, and how the debates have (and have not) moved the needle.

1. Fighting for silver. Republicans may say they are willing to vote for non-Trump candidates like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But when forced to decide, the majority still defaults with Trump. Given that Trump isn’t even at the debates, what is the rest of the field fighting for? Influence, VP, or 2028?
2. This field doesn’t draw viewers like Trump. The 4.1 million viewers that tuned into Wednesday’s debate may have meant a lot to the nascent news channel NewsNation, but these numbers represent a stark drop in viewership compared to eight years ago. After all, who’s going to watch a race that’s almost already been decided?
3. The debates haven’t moved the needle. When you zoom out, the Republican primary field hasn’t changed much across the first four debates. The pecking order of candidates is roughly the same as it was five months ago. Well, just without candidates like former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (both not shown), who both tanked before dropping out.
4. Has anyone “won” the first four debates? On average across the first four debates, debate watchers are the most likely to say DeSantis performed the best. But that doesn’t exactly mean he’s “won.” Over the same time, he only lost ground over the rest of the field. The momentum is more with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who saw a more significant bump. But without any candidate rising above the rest, Trump may have well been the real winner.
5. The tale of two rising stars. Political debates can make or break a candidate, and there’s no better examples than those of Haley and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Both entered the debates with the ability to carve out a favorable image as relative newcomers to the national stage, but have so far gone down two opposite paths. As Republicans became more familiar with Haley, her image grew more favorable. For Ramaswamy, who has drawn ire for his attacks on Haley, the opposite was true.

As the dust of the first four debates settles, the field of Republican presidential candidates looks roughly unchanged from where it was five months ago.

That doesn’t mean the debates are entirely moot – they’ve allowed up-and-coming Republicans like Haley and Ramaswamy to make their case for a future in national politics. But come 2024, will it matter? Probably not.

Most Republicans have already made their minds up: Trump or bust.