How the public sees the case on mifepristone

Today, the Supreme Court is set to rule on the Biden administration’s emergency FDA approval of mifepristone, following conflicting court rulings on whether the drug could still be used. As pundits, politicians, and now Supreme Court Justices weigh in on what should happen, it’s worth asking how the public makes sense of all this.

The policies, rhetoric, and court rulings around abortion don’t always align with public opinion. And while public conversation tends to veer into absolutes, Americans think about abortion in shades of gray. That remains true for the case before the court today.

In anticipation of that, below are five charts on what the public thinks about the case at hand.

1. Oppose overturning. Federal courts overturning FDA approval of mifepristone is unpopular. Republicans are the one exception here; the issue splits them. The Dobbs decision, which upended the constitutional right to abortion, falls into this camp of unpopularity; most don’t agree with it. Overall, most Americans support allowing abortion in many cases—but don’t support the extremes of the issue. Will this be another case where the courts don’t align with the public? We will see.
2. Accessing abortion pills. Attitudes on how people should access abortion pills aren’t black and white either. Bare majorities in blue and swing states think the medication should be accessible via the mail. Most Americans, regardless of where they live, support allowing women to access abortion pills via their doctor. But one thing Americans do agree on: they don’t like state-level blanket bans.
3. Partisanship shapes opinion. Unsurprisingly, most Democrats support women obtaining abortion pills through the mail. Yet again, partisanship explains opinion best. Most Democrats back this, while few Republicans and independents do. Groups who are more likely to be Democrats, like the college-educated, fall in line here as well.
4. Someone’s going to be left out. Do Americans trust the Supreme Court on abortion? Majorities of Americans, Democrats, and independents, as well as a plurality of Republicans, believe the high court is politically motivated when it comes to banning abortion in the U.S. Others feel the court is impartial. No matter the Supreme Court ruling today, one of two Americas will be left feeling disenfranchised.
5. The politics of abortion. Abortion coalesces Democrats around a candidate. Decisive majorities are less likely to vote for a politician who, through legislation and court appointments, limits access to abortion. Republicans are more conflicted here. Many don’t know whether they’d support candidates who restrict access to abortion. That flies in the face of a lot of conventional wisdom about Republicans on the issue. Don’t listen to the pundits; look at the numbers.

Americans hold complicated opinions about abortion. That extends to the case before the Supreme Court on mifepristone as well. Abortion brings out some of our most acute partisan instincts. How this will factor into trust in the Supreme Court and the politics around the issue heading into 2024 will be something to watch. So far, it looks like abortion will be a firebrand issue.