Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report: Independent Women Shifting Away From Republican Party On Congressional Elections

Washington, DC - A combined national poll among 1,565 registered voters, conducted on May 17-19 and June 7-9, 2002, shows that all voters favor Republicans but Independent voters are leaning towards the Democratic Party in the next mid-term congressional elections. Overall, Republicans lead voters' preferences 44%-40%. But there has been an important shift in the last four weeks, as Independent women have shifted away from the Republican party or have decided in favor of the Democratic party for now, following the lead of Independent men, who moved in the same direction about a month ago.

Specifically, 16% of independent women would want to see the Democrats win control of Congress, and 13% would want to see the Republicans win. Two weeks ago, 19% of independent women supported the Republicans for Congress and 7% the Democrats. Among independent men, a similar shift occurred in late April, and now Democrats are ahead in the congressional preferences of Independent men by 9 points, 29% to 20%.

As a result, among all Independents, the preference is to see Democratic control of Congress after this November's midterm elections. In the first Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll in January, Republicans held the lead among Independent voters. In January and February, Republicans lost that lead in Congressional preference of Independent voters. Republicans then clawed back to even with Democrats, throughout April and May, when it came to which party Independents would prefer to see in control of Congress. Now, with the shift of Independent men away from the Republican Party in April, followed by a similar shift among Independent women in May and June, Democrats once again hold the lead on which party the non-partisan voters would prefer to see in charge of Congress.

The Republican Party continues to lead overall in voters' preferences, because Republican partisans are slightly more loyal to their party than Democrats are: 87% of Republican voters want to see Republicans control Congress, while only 80% of Democratic voters want to see Democrats in charge.

However, two trends suggest that Democrats could improve their standing in the next few weeks and months:

• Democratic Voters Might Improve Their Loyalty

As elections approach, there is a natural trend for Democratic voters' loyalty to increase to a level that will match or almost match Republicans' loyalty. Democrats have slightly more room for improvement on that score than Republicans have.

• Independent Voters Will Probably Start to Choose Sides

Undecided Independents, who are still a majority, will gradually make up their minds and they may choose along the same lines as decided Independents have chosen so far, and that would mean a Democratic victory among the key swing groups of Independents. At this point, however, both Democrats and Republicans are far below their highest 2002 levels of support from Independent voters.

Methodology

The analysis is based on the combined data from two Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Polls conducted on May 15-17 and June 7-9, 2002. The combined sample size for these polls is 1,565 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5%.

The political survey is designed in conjunction with Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections for the U.S. House, Senate, governor and President as well as domestic American political trends. The New York Times has called the publication, "a newsletter that both parties consider authoritative" while the dean of the Washington political press corps, the Washington Post's David Broder has called Charlie Cook, its editor and publisher, "perhaps the best political handicapper in the nation." Cook also writes two weekly columns that appear in National Journal magazine and CongressDaily/AM and on nationaljournal.com, and serves as a political analyst for Cable News Network's show "Inside Politics."

The Cook Political Report is researched and written by a staff of five based in Washington, D.C. Subscribers to The Cook Political Report are primarily the lobbyists and managers for the political action committees of the nation's major corporations, trade associations and labor unions as well as by news organizations, foreign governments and others with an interest in detailed, impartial information and analysis of Congressional, gubernatorial and presidential elections.

For more information, please contact: Thomas Riehle, President Ipsos Public Affairs 202.463.7300 [email protected]