Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report: Persistent Shift in Party Identification Means GOP Shows Strength as the Midterm Election Year Begins

The first Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report poll finds Republicans in strong shape heading into the midterm election year. Traditionally, US midterm elections favor the party out of power over the party that holds control of the White House. Voters use midterm elections to impose a midcourse correction on the President elected two years earlier. But today, the political landscape has shifted in favor of Republicans after the events of September 11.

All adults are evenly divided between 44% who identify as Republicans and 45% as Democrats (including those who initially identify as Independents, but when pushed say they lean toward one party or the other.) The current poll by Ipsos-Reid of a representative sample of 1,000 adults nationwide, was conducted from January 4-6.

By contrast, in the eight Ipsos-Reid polls conducted in August and September prior to September 11, Democrats had a nine-point lead in party identification over Republicans among all adults (46% Democrats, 37% Republicans). In the eleven polls since September 11, the lead in party identification held by Democrats among all adults disappeared (43% Democrats, 42% Republicans).

Among 786 registered voters in the current Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll, the results were essentially the same as for all adults, (45% are Republicans and 47% are Democrats, including leaners.)

Among registered voters:

• 53% say they would definitely vote to re-elect Bush, 27% probably would, and only 19% would definitely vote for someone else if the election were today
• 44% would like to see Republicans win control of Congress this fall and 43% hope Democrats win control. There is a minor gender gap at work: women favor Democrats narrowly (46% of women hope Democrats control Congress, and 42% would prefer Republicans win control), while men favor Republicans (47% prefer Republican control of Congress, 40% Democrats).

The survey was conducted by Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos-Reid, which is part of the world's fourth largest polling and market research organization, the Ipsos group, based in Paris. Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective public affairs research organization made up of Democratic and Republican campaign and political polling veterans. It was established in Washington in August 2001, and it is led by Thomas Riehle, who has more than 15 years of experience as a political pollster in Washington. The Ipsos group worldwide earned revenues in excess of $329 million in 2000 and an estimated $450 million in 2001. The Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report poll is conducted the first and third week of every month, as part of Ipsos-Reid's weekly omnibus polling service.

The political survey is designed in conjunction with Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections for the U.S. House, Senate, governor and President as well as domestic American political trends. The New York Times has called the publication, "a newsletter that both parties consider authoritative" while the dean of the Washington political press corps, the Washington Post's David Broder has called Charlie Cook, its editor and publisher, "perhaps the best political handicapper in the nation." Cook also writes two weekly columns that appear in National Journal magazine and CongressDaily/AM and on nationaljournal.com, and serves as a political analyst for Cable News Network's show "Inside Politics." Researched and written by a staff of five based in Washington, D.C., the Cook Political Report's subscribers are primarily the lobbyists and managers for the political action committees of the nation's major corporations, trade associations and labor unions as well as by news organizations, foreign governments and others with an interest in detailed, impartial information and analysis of Congressional, gubernatorial and presidential elections.

To view the complete media release and tables, please download the PDF file.

• Contact: Thomas Riehle, President Ipsos-Reid U.S. Public Affairs Telephone 202.463.7300 Cell 202.494.8595 [email protected]