Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Survey: Democratic Presidential Primary/Caucus Participants Prove Fickle At This Stage

Between January 7-9,2003 and January 21-23,2003, Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs interviewed for Cook Political Report a representative sample of 2,008 adults nationwide. That yielded 454 Democrats or Democratic-leaning Independents who indicated they were likely to participate in the Democratic caucus or primary for President in 2004. The margin of error for likely Democratic Presidential primary/caucus participants is ? 4.6%. Washington, D.C. -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is the easy winner with 46% of the vote when likely participants in the Democratic Presidential primaries and caucuses are asked whether they would stay with their first choice or switch to Clinton, should she decide to run. But that does not mean likely voters in the Democratic nomination contest are going out of their way to insist that Clinton join the contest--in fact, only 2% initially volunteer that their first choice is Clinton, when asked to choose from among the seven candidates who have already announced or indicated serious plans to do so. When given the choice of Senator Clinton, 46% choose her, compared with 12% for Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, 8% for Connecticut Senator (and 2000 Vice Presidential nominee) Joe Lieberman, and 8% for former U.S. House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt. Candidates Edwards, Dean and Sharpton trail, as does potential candidate Graham. Initially, the Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report poll asked Democratic nomination contest likely voters to choose among seven announced or likely-to-announce candidates for a first choice, not including Clinton. After that, poll participants were asked whether they would stick with their first choice or switch to Clinton if the New York Senator chose to run for President in 2004. "Clinton clearly dominates over the field, but the absence of initial volunteered support for her suggests her position can be attributed to the weakness of voter loyalties toward their first choice candidates, and not to any desire to see Clinton run. The race is early, loyalties are soft, and most of the announced candidates have not locked down their base in the nomination contest sufficiently at this point," says Thomas Riehle, President of Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs. Frontrunner Kerry and back-of-the-pack candidate Dean prove best at retaining the loyalties of their voters. Gephardt supporters also prove relatively loyal. More than half of those initially supporting Lieberman, Edwards, Graham and Sharpton switch to Clinton if given that explicit choice.

For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs 202.463.7300