Ipsos/ Reuters Poll: Florida Republican Primary
- In our final survey, Mitt Romney looks likely to win about 43% of likely voters. This is about 15 percentage points higher than the 28% currently voting for Newt Gingrich.
- Rick Santorum (12%) and Ron Paul (5%) continue to trail the two leaders by large margins.
- An additional 12% remain undecided headed into election day.
- Our ongoing tracking from Thursday, Jan 26 through election day has shown Mitt Romney establish and build a significant lead in Florida.
These are findings from a series of Ipsos polls conducted for Thomson Reuters from January 26th - 31st, 2012. For the survey, a sample of approximately 300 likely voters in the Florida Republican Primary was interviewed online per day. The tracking data presented in these findings are the result of the previous three days of surveying. As we near the election, data from earlier dates will be dropped from the tracking total. Likely voters are defined via a seven-item summated Likely Voter Index, including questions on voter registration, voting in previous elections, likelihood of voting in the upcoming election and interest in following news about the campaign. This index is then transformed by logistic regression into estimated probabilitiesof voting. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online surveys but this poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for registered voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
The data were weighted to Florida current population registered voter data by gender, age, education, ethnicity and a political values scale. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
More data and full technical details are available in the topline document attached.
For more information on this news release please contact:
Chris Jackson Research Director, Public Sector Practice Ipsos Public Affairs 202.420.2011 [email protected]
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