The most important factors for the Oval Office

Former President Donald Trump has led every Republican primary poll over the past few months. The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary isn’t technically over, but functionally, it’s over. As we start shifting our eyes to a Trump-Biden rematch, how can we make sense of the general election?

There are several key factors worth paying attention to, which Ipsos has been using to successfully forecast elections across the world, including the 2022 Brazilian election, the 2023 Argentinian election, the 2023 Türkiye election, and the U.S. elections in 2016 and 2020.

Which factors are worth paying attention to, and which aren’t? Below are five charts on the factors that do and don’t matter when it comes to election forecasting.

1. Beware of false positives. When it comes to forecasting elections, false positives are everywhere. Specifically, early polls and past elections don’t seem to predict future elections. Be careful what you listen to.
2. Incumbency effect. A 40% approval rating is about the line where a president roughly has a 50/50 chance at winning the next election. Right now, Biden is sitting just under the 50/50 mark at roughly 38% approval. But historically, presidents presiding over healthy or strengthening economies saw an approximate 7-point approval rating boost in the year heading up to the election. Given recent positive economic news, is Biden due for a boost? We will see.
3. The main issue. Consider the 85% rule – where the candidate who is strongest on the main issue wins 85% of the time. Trump currently is seen to perform better on the main issue right now – the economy. But the economy receding as the main issue might favor Biden given that he has a stronger hold on a range of secondary issues, like healthcare, education, women’s rights, and respect for democracy. Stay tuned.
4. Two scenarios for the future. If things stay as they are now, Trump would benefit. If the public perception around the economy improves and Biden’s approval rises, Biden benefits. How will things shake out? We will see.
5. Lean Trump. Right now, based on our three-input model, we predict that former President Donald Trump has the slight upper hand over President Joe Biden in the 2024 general election. But that doesn’t mean it’s time to anoint Trump the 47th President of the United States – these models (as most models do) suffer from temporal fuzziness. Expect things to change.

Right now, Ipsos’ models lean Trump. That doesn’t mean Trump will win – our inputs are bound to change over the next few months. Will the economy remain the main issue? Will Biden get credit for an improving economy? Will the incumbency effect kick in for Biden? These are the keys to understanding 2024 election. Watch this space.