Cliff’s Take: A Profile in Intractability
Wait, is this July 2020 or 2021? America was on a clear path to reemergence from the long COVID doldrum. Mask wearing was down; social gatherings were up. The vaccine was our savior, a passport to a normal life.
But enter the Delta variant – a more cunning and insidious version of COVID – to put a damper on our collective enthusiasm. This should remind us all that COVID rules still apply. One step forward; two steps back.
What will get us back on track? Vaccinations, vaccinations, vaccinations. Simple, right? Unfortunately, no. While a little under half of the unvaccinated express some openness to getting a shot, for the rest, extreme opposition to the vaccine is immutable.
And so far, it doesn’t look like there’s much that will convince the hard-liners to change their minds of their own accord.
Below I detail the data highlights of the week:
- Regression to the COVID mean. We are headed back to more restrictions. Earlier this summer, people started to do the things that were off-limits during lockdowns. But that’s dropping off as America prepares itself for another round. Look at the data.
- Ignorance is bliss. But not if you’re opposed to the vaccine. For them, it is damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. Delta variant or no. A tale of two Americas indeed.
- Nudging the un-nudgeable. What will convince the unvaccinated to get the vaccine? For people who are a “hard pass” on the vaccine, the answer is – essentially nothing. No amount of convincing will work; it will likely take more stringent mandates. But for the fence sitters, the power of suggestion is still a tool.
- Profile in intractability. Who is most resistant to the vaccine? We could slice and dice these numbers all day. But bottom line, vaccine resistance crisscrosses the demos. One in three Republicans are opposed. Lower income groups and younger generations also tend to be less open to the vaccine. These should be our targets.
- Office blues. Again, the unvaccinated are, well, unrepentant. Back to work, sure; but don’t require me to wear a mask. The logic is consistent. No amount of nudging will convince.
So, key takeaways. First, around one in three American adults aren’t vaccinated yet. At the same time, cases and hospitalizations are now rising in the states where vaccine hesitancy is highest.
Some other points. As noted above, there is little that would convince the group most opposed to the vaccine (around 18% of the total adult population, according to our most recent three waves of the Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index) to soften their stance.
As I said weeks ago, nudging the un-nudgeable will only work to a certain extent. To get the U.S. to herd immunity, more widespread vaccine mandates are likely a necessary next step.
As always, be safe, be sane.
