Washington, DC, November 20, 2018 - This November’s Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index continues to hover around 50 as it has for much of the past year. The index comes in at 49.9, showing a three-month drop of 0.6 points. China increases its lead as the most confident global economy with yet another record high score (+1.9 to 75.5), while the United States (+0.9 to 62.7) moves to second place ahead of India (-2.2 to 61.8). Saudi Arabia (+3.3 to 61.5) regains an index value of 60 for the first time since August 2016. In the wake of an election that saw no clear party majority emerge, Sweden (-1.5 to 59.7) falls below 60 points for the first time since December 2016. Turkey (-7.3 to 34.2), Argentina (-3.8 to 35.4), and South Africa (-2.7 to 39.1) report in as both the most pessimistic countries and those with the most significant three-month decreases in consumer confidence. Five other countries also show drops of 1.5 points or more, including France (-2.6 to 40.8), and Spain (-2.6 to 42.2). Other than Saudi Arabia and China, the only country showing a notable jump in confidence is Brazil (+4.1 to 46.0), following the election of Jair Bolsonaro.
This month’s global Jobs Index falls 0.5 point to 58.6. Four countries enjoy Jobs Index scores of more than 70 points: the US (+2.1 to 74.9), Sweden (-2.2 to 73.5), Germany (+0.7 to 73.0), and Canada (+2.3 to 70.8). The US and Canada are joined by Brazil (+2.9 to 37.4) as the top gainers. Despite reporting the most index growth, Brazil remains the lowest scorer. Countries with the next lowest scores include Argentina (-3.4 to 41.5), Turkey (-5.0 to 42.4), and South Africa (-2.2 to 43.5). While China sees gains on all other metrics, its Jobs Index is significantly down compared to three months ago (-3.4 to 69.4).
China (+1.8 to 75.1) remains the lone country with an Expectations Index value above 70. China also reports this month’s fourth largest gain in future expectations, surpassed only by Canada (+2.2 to 62.6), Saudi Arabia (+3.5 to 66.7), and a surging Brazil (+5.0 to 66.8). However, the worldwide trend is down as the global Expectations Index shows a 0.6-point drop. Turkey (-7.3 to 42.6) reports both the lowest Expectations Index score of any country and the most negative three-month change. Expectations are also down in the next two lowest-scoring countries, France (-2.1 to 47.9) and South Africa (-3.7 to 48.7) as well as in Spain (-2.7 to 52.0), South Korea (-2.1 to 51.0), Great Britain (-1.7 to 52.7), and Mexico (-1.7 to 64.0).
Although the global Investment Index shows a 0.7-point drop to 43.2, China’s index (+4.6 to 78.8) grows to an unprecedented level. Other countries showing gains include Saudi Arabia (+4.9 to 62.7), Brazil (+4.3 to 46.4), and Germany (+1.8 to 48.1). In contrast, nine countries see their Investment Index score decrease significantly. These include the three markets with the lowest scores, Turkey (-9.7 to 25.9), Japan (-1.5 to 26.9), and Argentina (-5.2 to 27.6), as well as India (-3.7 to 62.1), which goes down from second to third place.
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