Global Consumer Confidence Ties Record High
Washington, DC - This month’s global consumer confidence Primary Index has risen to 50.6, tying the record high set in January 2018 since Ipsos started tracking in 2010. The Primary Index is a measure of consumer attitudes in 24 countries regarding the current and future state of local economies, personal finances, savings, and confidence to make large investments, as measured monthly by Ipsos. These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in an ongoing survey that has conducted 17,500 interviews monthly since January 2010.
Nine countries saw a significant increase in their Primary Index score, with South Africa, Turkey, Hungary, Brazil, France, the US, Belgium, Great Britain, and Poland all seeing an increase of at least 1.5 points or more. The most significant changes were seen in South Africa (+7.4), Turkey (+3.3), and Hungary (+3.2). Argentina (-5.7), Russia (-2.2), and Saudi Arabia (-2.1) saw the largest decreases in their Primary Index scores.
Once again, China (70.3), India (65.0), Sweden (63.9) and the US (62.8) scored the best marks among the 24 countries included in the index. Russia (40.8) has broken out of the list of countries scoring below 40 and now leaves Italy as the lone country with an index below 40 at 38.6.
Three subsets of the Primary Index, the Jobs Index reflecting perceptions of job security, the Investment Index, reflecting perceptions of the investment climate, and the expectations index, reflecting perceptions of future economic expansion, are up globally.
March’s global Ipsos Jobs Index (57.7) has risen 0.4 points over the past three months and has risen 2.8 points since this time last year. Belgium (61.0) experienced the largest Jobs Index gain over the last three months with an increase of 4.0 points. Conversely, Argentina saw the greatest decline, seeing their index fall 5.0 points to 49.1. The US (71.8) has taken the position with the highest Jobs Index mark, a distinction held by Sweden (71.1) in last month’s poll. China rounds out the top three with an index of 71.0. Brazil (34.7), continues to record the lowest Jobs Index score among the 24 countries surveyed.
The global Expectations Index score saw the largest increase and now stands at 59.6, up 1.4 points over the last three months. Ten countries saw significant increase of at least 1.5 points including South Africa, up an incredible 16.3 points to 63.3, Hungary, up 5.7 points to 59.6, and Turkey, up 4.3 points to 49.5. France (+2.3), Brazil (+2.1), Great Britain( +2.0), Italy (+1.8), Mexico (+1.7), The US (+1.7), and Australia (+1.5) round out the list of significant increases. Three countries recorded decreases of 1.5 points or more, with Argentina (-3.9) experiencing the largest drop. China (73.8) and India (71.1) report the highest Expectations scores, while Turkey (49.5) reports lowest.
The global Investment Index shows a 3-month gain of 0.5 points, and is now up to 44.3. Seven countries saw gains of 1.5 points or more with the largest ones in South Africa (+4.7), Brazil (+3.8) and The US (+3.3). Despite the overall increase in the global Investment Index, five countries dropped in this month’s Index. Argentina reported the most significant decrease of 6.4 points. China (68.7), India (66.7), and Sweden (61.2) are the highest scoring countries. Four countries reported scores under 35, with Italy (28.9) and Russia (33.3) reporting the lowest Investment Index scores.
About the Study
These findings are based on a rolling average of data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 countries via Ipsos’ Global @dvisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-64 in the United States of America, Canada, and Israel, and age 16-64 in all 21 other countries each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.
Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please go to www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5836.
The results reported each month in the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (go to https://financial.thomsonreuters.com/en/products/data-analytics/market-data/indices/ipsos-surveys.html) are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during to the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.
The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Nicolas Boyon
Senior Vice President, U.S.
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 212.293.6544
[email protected]
About Ipsos
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.
With offices in 88 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.
