Outside the U.S., Biden is the clear favorite

If people of 24 countries other than the United States could vote in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, 48% would cast a ballot for former Vice President Joe Biden while 17% would choose incumbent President Donald Trump. An Ipsos' Global Advisor survey of more than 18,500 online adults in the U.S. and 24 other countries, conducted September 25-October 9, finds that outside the U.S., an average of 39% believe Biden will win and 27% believe Trump will.

Among various threats to the integrity of the upcoming U.S. election, the spreading of fake news is most often mentioned by citizens of other countries (35%). It is also the most widely perceived serious risk in their country’s next major elections (28%).

Biden vs, Trump: How the world would vote

When asked who they would vote for in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, many more adults surveyed in most of 24 countries, not including the United States, say they would vote for Democrat candidate Joe Biden over Republican candidate Donald Trump.

• Globally, 48% say they would vote for Biden, 17% say they would vote for Trump, 26% do not know and 9% prefer not to say.
• Biden leads Trump by 50 percentage points or more in six countries (Sweden, Belgium, Mexico, Germany, the Netherlands, and Canada) and by 30 to 49 points in 10 other countries.
• Only in Poland and Russia does support for Trump equal or outweigh that for Biden.
• Biden is preferred by as many as 73% of those surveyed in Sweden and by only 13% in Russia.
• Trump is preferred by as many as 34% of those surveyed in India and by only 7% in Mexico.
• Averaging the results for all 24 countries surveyed, Biden leads Trump by 31 points, 48% to 17%.
• A similar Ipsos poll conducted before the 2016 presidential election also found citizens across the world generally preferred Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton to Trump: on average, 58% of people across 22 countries not including the U.S. would have voted for Clinton, compared to 12% for Trump.

Who the world expects to win

When it comes to who people outside the U.S. expect to win the election, regardless of their preference, 39% across all 24 countries believe Biden will win, 27% think Trump will, 28% don’t know and 6% prefer not to say.

• Biden is most widely expected to win in Mexico (51%) and South Korea (50%); Trump is in Poland (41%), Russia (36%), and India (35%).
• Ahead of the 2016 election, 68% of citizens from 23 countries not including the U.S. expected Clinton to win while only 15% were betting on Trump.

Perceived threats to the U.S. election and the next major elections in their own country

Looking at the integrity of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Americans are more likely than people living in other countries to believe this event could be impacted by four factors:

• The spreading of fake news (cited as a serious risk by 45% of Americans vs. 35% of people in 24 other countries),
• Efforts to misrecord, misuse, or destroy valid votes (36% vs. 19%),
• Voter fraud (35% vs. 22%), and
• Efforts to prevent people from voting (34% vs. 20%).

On average, people across the world are more likely to think the upcoming U.S. election is exposed to several specific risks than is the next major election in their country:

• The spreading of fake news (globally cited by 35% as a serious risk in the U.S. vs. 28% as a risk in their country),
• Efforts to prevent people from voting (20% vs. 15%), and
• Interference from a foreign power (16% vs. 12%).

However, other risks are perceived to apply as much or as little to the U.S. as to their country:

• Vote-buying (cited by 22% as a serious risk in the U.S. vs. 23% as a serious risk in their own country),
• Voter fraud or impersonation (22% both),
• Efforts to misrecord, misuse or destroy valid votes (19% vs. 18%), and
• Organizational problems (16% vs. 17%).

Concern that the integrity of the next major election in one’s own country is at risk varies widely:

• Many in the Netherlands (43%), Germany (38%), Australia and Japan (35%), Canada (32%), Belgium (31%), and France (30%) do not think any of these risks could seriously impact the results of their country’s next major election.
• Very few do in Mexico (2%), South Africa (3%), Brazil and Hungary (both 4%), Argentina, India, Malaysia, Peru, Turkey (6%), the United States (8%), and Russia (10%).

These are the findings of a 25-country Global Advisor survey conducted on Ipsos’s Online Panel System, September 25-October 9, 2020 among 18,507 adults aged 18-74 in the United States, Canada, Malaysia, South Africa, and Turkey and 16-74 in all other countries.

About Ipsos

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