Two in Five Americans Believe President Trump will Be Re-elected
Washington, DC, February 27, 2020 — According to the latest Ipsos poll, conducted on behalf of Newsy, 45% of Americans believe President Trump will be re-elected during the next presidential election. With regards to their desired outcome of the election, however, only a third of Americans say they want him to win (32%) compared to 44% who hope for a Democratic candidate. Only 5% want a third party or independent candidate, and another 5% want a Republican besides Trump to win.
Americans are also concerned about the integrity of the upcoming elections. Roughly two-thirds say they are very or somewhat concerned about the impact of fake news (69%), malfunctioning election systems (66%) and voter fraud (65%) on the elections this year. Three in five are also concerned about foreign interference (60%) and vote suppression (59%).
Despite these concerns, three quarters of Americans say their vote matters a great deal or somewhat (72%) in the upcoming presidential election. The Baby Boomer generation, those (ages 55 and older) are more likely to feel that their vote will matter than younger generations; 78% among Boomers, compared to 70% of Generation X (ages 40 to 54, 69% of Millennials (ages 25 to 39), and 61% of Generation Z (ages 18 to 24).
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between February 21-25, 2020 on behalf of Newsy. For this survey, a sample of roughly 2,010 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S. Alaska and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The survey also included 868 Democrats, 829 Republicans, and 185 independents.
The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=2,010, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points).
The poll also has a credibility interval ± 3.8 percentage points for Democrats, ± 3.9 percentage points for Republicans, and ± 8.1 percentage points for independents.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Chris Jackson
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]
Kate Silverstein
Media Relations Specialist, US
Public Affairs
+1 718 755-8829
[email protected]
About Ipsos
Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.
Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.
Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).
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