In Florida, Biden and Trump are in close race

Voters are primarily concerned with coronavirus and the economy

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Senior Account Manager, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, November 2, 2020

The final Reuters/Ipsos Florida state poll just before Election Day shows that the race for the presidency is still hotly contested. When the very few undecided voters are asked who they would pick for president if they had to choose, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden receives a majority of the vote share (51%) among likely voters, and President Donald Trump receives 47%. When undecided voters are not forced to choose between either candidate, the margin does not change - 50% say they support Biden and 46% say they support Trump. This indicates that late deciders are not necessarily breaking strongly for either candidate.

President Trump’s approval rating in Florida is 48% among all Floridians, higher than the national average. Floridians want a presidential candidate that has a robust plan to help the nation recover from the coronavirus pandemic (29%) and a candidate who has a strong plan for the economy and job creation (24%). Floridians are split between Biden (45%) and Trump (41%) on who has a better plan for coronavirus. Floridians favor Trump (49%) on the economy and job creation, rather than Biden (41%).

Read the full Reuters' story here.

Washington, DC, October 28, 2020

In Florida, President Donald Trump (47%) and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden (49%) are in a highly contested race among likely voters. Forty-five percent of Floridians approve of the job Trump is doing as president, which is higher than the national average. Thirty percent of Floridians are looking for a presidential candidate that has a robust plan to help the nation recover from the impact of coronavirus, while 24% prefer a candidate that has a strong plan for the economy and job creation. Biden is seen by more Floridians as the candidate with the better plan to deal with coronavirus (46%), compared to 39% who say Trump has a better plan. Trump’s position on the economy is favored by 49% of Floridians, while 39% say Biden has a better plan.

Floridians are very supportive of economic stimulus measures including additional loans to small businesses for coronavirus related relief (85%), giving Americans stimulus checks (82%), additional unemployment payments for people who have lost their job because of the pandemic (79%), and postponing evictions (78%). Nevertheless, about 45% of Floridians are supportive of how Congress has handled the response to the pandemic.

Read the full Reuters' story here.

Washington, DC, October 21, 2020

In Florida, former Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump remain locked in a highly contested race for the presidency. Half of likely voters say they will vote for Biden (50%) and 46% say they will vote for Trump. Over the last four Reuters/Ipsos surveys, vote shares between the candidates have fluctuated from ties (47% each) to a minor Biden advantage. While President Trump’s approval rating (46%) in Florida remains higher than the national average, Trump’s net approval rating has shifted from positive one percentage point approval (48% approve, 47% disapprove) in mid-September, to net negative five percentage points (46% approve, 51% disapprove) and has remained there for the last three survey waves. About 29% of Floridians are looking for a candidate that has a robust plan to help the country recover from coronavirus and 24% want a candidate that has a strong plan on the economy and job creation. Biden is seen as the leader by 47% of Floridians on coronavirus compared to Trump (40%). Trump is seen by a majority as having a better plan for the economy and job creation (51%) compared to just 40% who say the same thing about Biden.

On other issues, Floridians overwhelmingly support economic stimulus measures like additional loans to small business for coronavirus-related economic relief (85%), giving Americans stimulus checks (85%), additional unemployment payments for those who lost their job as a result of the pandemic (83%), and eviction postponement (80%). About 44% support Congress’ overall response to the coronavirus. Fifty-seven percent of Floridians agree that the winner of the election should be able to appoint Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement on the Supreme Court.

Read the full Reuters' story here.

Washington, DC, October 14, 2020

Among likely voters in Florida, the race for the presidency remains too close to call between Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden (49%) and President Donald Trump (47%). Trump continues to enjoy approval ratings in Florida (46%) that are higher than the national average, which has been hovering near 40% for months.

Floridians want a candidate for president who can tackle the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic (29%) and has a strong plan for the economy and job creation (22%). Sixteen percent of Floridians also prioritize a candidate who can restore trust in government. Perceptions of Biden’s performance on these three key issues have improved since Reuters/Ipsos began polling in mid-September. Among all Floridians, Trump is seen as doing better on the economy (46%) while 42% say the same about Biden. On the economy, Biden has improved four percentage points since mid-September, while Trump has dropped two percentage points, narrowing the gap between the two candidates from 10 points in mid-September to just four points this week. Biden outperforms Trump on his plan for coronavirus (48%), compared to 40% who say Trump has a better plan. Biden’s lead has grown on coronavirus since mid-September when both candidates were virtually tied (Trump – 42%, Biden – 43%). Looking at a candidate’s ability to restore trust in government, Biden has increased three points since mid-September, while Trump has dropped one point, doubling the size of Biden’s lead on the issue to eight points.

Read the full Reuters' story here

Washington, DC, October 7, 2020

In Florida, among likely voters, the poll numbers have shifted since mid-September away from a dead heat (Biden – 47%, Trump – 47%), with 49% of likely voters reporting they would vote for Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden and 45% would vote for President Donald Trump. While President Trump’s approval rating (46%) remains higher than the national average, Trump’s net approval rating has shifted from positive one percentage point approval (48% approve, 47% disapprove) in mid-September, to net negative five percentage points (46% approve, 51% disapprove). Floridians are looking for a presidential candidate who has a plan to help the country recover from coronavirus (28%) and a strong plan for the economy and job creation (25%). A candidate who can restore trust in government is the most important candidate trait for 17% of Floridians. When it comes to the economy and job creation, Trump (47%) is perceived as having a better plan by more Floridians than Biden (42%). However, when it comes to a plan to combat the coronavirus, 48% of Floridians believe Biden is better suited to the task (up five percentage points from mid-September) than Trump (39% - down three percentage points since mid-September). Biden is also seen as the candidate who is more likely to restore trust in government (47% - up four percentage points from mid-September), compared to 38% who say the same thing about Trump. More than half of Floridians believe that abortion should be legal in most cases (56%), and a similar proportion believe that the winner of the election should be able to appoint Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement on the Supreme Court (58%).

Read the full Reuters' story here. 

Washington, DC, September 23, 2020

In Florida, President Donald Trump (47%) and former Vice President Joe Biden (47%) are tied in the contest for president among likely voters. President Trump’s job approval rating among all Floridians is higher than the national average at 48%. About one-third of Floridians say they are looking for a candidate that has a strong plan to help the country recover from the impact of COVID-19 (30%) and one-fifth want a candidate who has a strong economic plan (20%). Biden and Trump are both seen as having strong plans for helping the country recover from COVID-19 (Biden – 43%, Trump – 42%). When it comes to having a strong plan for the economy, Floridians are more likely to say Trump (48%) has a better plan, compared to 38% who say the same for Biden.

About the Study

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted October 27 – November 1, 2020, on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this study, a total of 1,011 adults age 18+ from Florida were interviewed online in English and Spanish, including 670 likely voters. The first wave of this poll was conducted September 11-16, 2020, among 1,005 adults age 18+ from Florida, including 586 likely voters. The second wave of this poll was conducted September 29 – October 6, 2020, among 1,100 adults age 18+ from Florida, including 678 likely voters. The third wave of this poll was conducted from October 7-14, 2020 among 1,000 adults age 18+ from Florida, including 653 likely voters. The fourth wave of this poll was conducted from October 14-20, 2020 among 1,005 adults age 18+ from Florida, including 662 likely voters. The fifth wave of this poll was conducted from October 21-27, 2020 among 1,006 adults age 18+ from Florida, including 704 likely voters.

The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2018 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the online sample for this poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,011, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points). The online poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for likely voters.

The first wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.6 percentage points for likely voters. The second wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for likely voters. The third wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for likely voters.The fourth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for likely voters. The fifth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for likely voters.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

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The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Senior Account Manager, US, Public Affairs

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