In Wisconsin, Biden leads Trump in final days before election

Coronavirus and the economy are top concerns for voters

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Senior Account Manager, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, November 1, 2020

In the final Reuters/Ipsos survey in Wisconsin before the election, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden continues to lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters. When the few remaining undecided voters are forced to choose between the candidates, the survey shows that Biden is up by eight percentage points, receiving 53% of the vote share, compared to Trump who receives 45%. This indicates that Trump could benefit from late deciders in Wisconsin, but Biden maintains his lead in the state despite this potential advantage. If undecided voters are not forced to choose between either candidate, Biden is up by 10 percentage points, receiving 53% of the vote share among likely voters, while Trump receives 43%.

Trump’s overall approval rating is 43% among all Wisconsinites, in line with the national average. One-third of Wisconsinites say that having a strong plan to deal with coronavirus is the most important factor for them when deciding whom to vote for (33%), 20% say it is the economy and job creation, and 18% say it is the ability to restore trust in government. Biden is seen as the stronger candidate when it comes to handling the coronavirus pandemic (48%) compared to Trump (36%). Biden is also seen as the candidate most likely to restore trust in government (47%), compared to Trump (33%). Trump (45%) and Biden (42%) are statistically tied when it comes to perceptions of each candidate’s plan for the economy and job growth.

Read the full Reuters' story here

Washington, DC, October 26, 2020

In Wisconsin, former Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden (53%) maintains his lead over President Donald Trump (44%) among likely voters. Biden’s lead has strengthened in Wisconsin since Reuters/Ipsos began polling in mid-September when Biden received 48% of the vote share and Trump received 43%. Trump’s approval rating among all Wisconsinites stands at 42%, which has been stable over the last five surveys Reuters/Ipsos has conducted in Wisconsin. As the rate of coronavirus infections has increased dramatically in Wisconsin, the number of people in Wisconsin saying that coronavirus is the biggest problem in the state has grown 15 percentage points, from 34% in mid-September to 49% today. About one-third of Wisconsinites say the most important factor when choosing a presidential candidate is the candidate’s plan to help the nation recover from coronavirus (31%), followed by 21% who say the same thing about the economy and job creation. Nearly half of all Wisconsinites believe that Biden has a better plan for handling coronavirus (48%) compared to 36% who say the same thing about Trump. Wisconsinites are split on whether Trump (45%) or Biden (43%) has a better plan for the economy and job growth. Wisconsinites are largely supportive of coronavirus economic stimulus policies like giving additional loans to small businesses for coronavirus-related economic relief (86%), postponing evictions (79%), giving Americans stimulus checks (79%), and additional unemployment payments to those Americans who have lost their jobs due to the pandemic (78%). Just 32% are supportive of Congress’ response to the pandemic.

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Washington, DC, October 19, 2020

In Wisconsin, among likely voters, former Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden receives a majority of the vote share (51%) while President Donald Trump receives 43%. Trump’s approval rating in Wisconsin (42%) is in line with the national average, which has consistently been near 40% for much of Trump’s tenure.

With the recent surge in coronavirus cases, Wisconsinites view the coronavirus as a major issue facing the state (47%), and about 31% want a candidate for president who has a strong national plan for the issue. About one-fifth (21%) of Wisconsinites are looking for a candidate who has a strong plan on the economy, and 17% want a candidate who can restore trust in government. Looking at candidate performance on the issues, just under half say that Biden has a better position on coronavirus (48%), compared with 37% who say the same about Trump. On the economy and job creation, 46% say Trump is seen as stronger on the issue compared to 42% who say the same about Biden. Biden is seen as much more likely to restore trust in government (48%) than Trump (31%).

Looking at other timely issues, just 31% of Wisconsinites support how Congress has handled their overall response to coronavirus, while large majorities support economic stimulus policies, like additional loans to small businesses for coronavirus-related relief (87%), stimulus checks for Americans (81%), additional unemployment payments who have lost their job since the coronavirus pandemic began (79%), and eviction postponement (79%). Fifty-seven percent say that the winner of the election should get to choose late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg replacement.

Read the full Reuters' story here

Washington, DC, October 12, 2020

In Wisconsin, Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the race for the presidency among likely voters (51%) against President Donald Trump (44%). President Trump’s approval is at 42% among all Wisconsinites, in line with the national average.  

When asked which top qualities or policies they considered when choosing a candidate for president, having a strong plan for recovery from the impact of the coronavirus is the number one issue for 30% of Wisconsinites, while 20% want a strong plan on the economy and job creation, and 18% are concerned with restoring trust in government. On the economy and job creation, Trump (45%) and Biden (43%) are statistically tied. When it comes to having a plan to help the nation recover from the impact of coronavirus, Biden (48%) outperforms Trump (36%). Biden is also seen as the candidate who will be able to restore trust in government (48%) compared to Trump (33%). Since mid-September, perceptions of Biden’s performance on the economy has increased seven percentage points ( Sept 11-16th survey: 36%), and six percentage points each on a plan for coronavirus (Sept 11-16th survey: 42%) and the ability to restore trust in government (Sept 11-16th survey: 42%), while Trump’s performance has remained statistically unchanged.

Read the full Reuters’ story here.

Washington, DC, October 5, 2020

In Wisconsin, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden (50%) has a slight edge over President Donald Trump (44%) among likely voters. President Trump’s overall approval rating is 43% among all Wisconsinites, in line with the national average. As the coronavirus outbreak surges in Wisconsin, the level of concern surrounding the coronavirus outbreak has increased eight percentage points in Wisconsin since mid-September to 42%. A quarter of Wisconsinites view having a strong plan to recover from the coronavirus as the most important factor they consider when choosing a presidential candidate, followed by a strong plan for the economy and job creation (20%) and the ability to restore trust in government (also 20%). Biden is seen as having a better plan to deal with coronavirus by nearly half of Wisconsinites (47%) compared to just 37% who say the same thing of Trump. Biden is also seen as the candidate who is more likely to restore trust in government (45%) compared to Trump (33%). When it comes to the economy and job creation, Trump (49%) outperforms Biden (41%). Concerning the recent death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 57% of those in Wisconsin say the winner of the election should be able to appoint Ginsburg’s replacement to the Supreme Court.

Read the full Reuters’ story here.

Washington, DC, September 21, 2020

In Wisconsin, among likely voters, former Vice President Joe Biden (48%) is slightly ahead of President Donald Trump (43%) in the race for the White House. President Trump’s approval rating is 43% among all Wisconsinites, on par with Trump’s national approval rating. Wisconsinites view having a robust plan to deal with COVID-19 as the most important candidate trait (28%), followed by having a strong economic plan (21%), and the ability to restore trust in government (18%). Despite recent events in Kenosha, Wisconsin, just 11% say that having a tough plan for crime and civil unrest is their top priority. Among all Wisconsinites, Trump is perceived to be stronger on the economy and job creation (47%) than Biden (36%). However, Biden outperforms Trump on having a strong plan to recover from COVID-19 (Biden - 42%, Trump - 38%) and the ability to restore trust in government (Biden - 42%, Trump – 35%) .

Read the full Reuters’ story here.

About the Study

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted October 27 – November 1, 2020, on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this study, a total of 1,007 adults age 18+ from Wisconsin were interviewed online in English, including 696 likely voters. The first wave of this poll was conducted September 11-16, 2020, among 1,005 adults age 18+ from Wisconsin, including 577 likely voters. The second wave of this poll was conducted September 29 – October 5, 2020 among 1,000 adults age 18+ from Wisconsin, including 601 likely voters. The third wave of this poll was conducted from October 6-11, 2020 among 1,002 adults age 18+ from Wisconsin, including 577 likely voters. The fourth wave of this poll was conducted from October 13-19, 2020 among 1,001 adults age 18+ from Wisconsin, including 663 likely voters. The fifth wave of this poll was conducted from October 20-26, 2020 among 1,008 adults age 18+ from Wisconsin, including 664 likely voters.

The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2018 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the online sample for this poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,007, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points). The online poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for likely voters.

The first wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for likely voters. The second wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.6 points for likely voters. The third wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.7 points for likely voters. The fourth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.3 points for likely voters. The fifth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.3 points for likely voters.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

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The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Senior Account Manager, US, Public Affairs

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