Reuters/Ipsos Survey: 2020 Democratic Primary Tracker (02/04/2020)

Biden continues to lead the race for the Democratic primary nomination among Democratic registered voters.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Senior Account Manager, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, February 4, 2020   Ahead of learning the Iowa caucus results, the Reuters/Ipsos 2020 Democratic Primary Tracker shows little change in the national horserace for the Democratic presidential nomination. Former Vice President Joe Biden still leads the pack among Democratic registered voters (27%) and Senator Bernie Sanders receives about one-fifth of the vote share (21%) for second place. Elizabeth Warren (12%) and Michael Bloomberg (9%) are vying for the third place spot. Among Democrats and independents who are registered to vote, the race is tighter : Biden (22%) and Sanders (19%) each receive about one-fifth of the vote share, while Warren (10%) and Bloomberg (9%) are also neck and neck.  

When asked who they would choose if their preferred candidate were no longer running for the nomination, Democratic registered voters report that Elizabeth Warren is their top alternate choice (22%), followed by Sanders (19%), Bloomberg (17%) and Biden (16%). Seventy-one percent of Democratic registered voters are interested in learning the results of the Iowa caucuses, but only 17% say it will have a major impact on who they chose to vote for. Democratic registered voters believe that Biden is the candidate who is most likely to beat Trump in the general election (34%) followed by Sanders (20%) and Bloomberg (13%).  

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between January 31-February 3, 2020 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 1,116 Americans age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 931 registered voters, 430 Democratic registered voters, 380 Republican registered voters, and 91 independent registered voters. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Americans been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The poll also has a credibility interval ± 3.7 percentage points for registered voters, ± 5.4 percentage points for Democratic registered voters, ± 5.7 percentage points for Republican registered voters, and ± 11.7 percentage points for independent registered voters.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025

Kate Silverstein
Media Relations, US
Public Affairs
+1 718 755-8829

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

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The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Annaleise Azevedo Lohr Senior Account Manager, US, Public Affairs