Washington, D.C., December 6, 2019 — A new Reuters/Ipsos public opinion survey of 1,115 Americans shows that among Democrats and independents, Former Vice President Joe Biden remains the favorite to take the Democratic nomination in 2020 with 19% of the vote share. Senator Bernie Sanders is in second place with 14%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren is in third with 9%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is the last of the frontrunners, with 6% of Democrats and independents saying that if the election were held today, he would have their vote. Newcomers to the race, Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Former Governor of Massachusetts Deval Patrick, have not made a large impact, holding 4% and 1% of the vote share, respectively. All other candidates receive 3% or less of the vote share.
When asked about their second-choice candidates in the event that their first choice drops out, Democrats and independents are most likely to choose Biden and Sanders, who are tied at 17%. Warren is the second choice for 13%, followed by Buttigieg (9%) and Bloomberg (7%). All other candidates included in this question would receive 4% or less.
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About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between December 4-5, 2019 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 1,115 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 486 Democrats, 396 Republicans, and 110 independents. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Americans been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The poll also has a credibility interval ± 5.1 percentage points for Democrats, ± 5.6 percentage points for Republicans, ± 10.7 percentage points for independents.
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