Reuters/Ipsos: Ginsburg and Supreme Court Vacancy (09/21/2020)

Washington, DC, September 21, 2020

The latest public opinion poll from Reuters/Ipsos finds that a majority of Americans (62%) believe the winner of the election in November should be able to appoint the replacement for the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, including about half of Republicans (49%) and 84% of Democrats. Most Americans are split on the expected impact Ginsburg’s death may have on the election, with 23% saying it will increase support for President Donald Trump, 29% saying it will increase support for former Vice President Joe Biden, 23% saying it will have no impact, and 25% are unsure.

For full results, please refer to the following annotated questionnaire. 

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 19-20, 2020, on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 1,006 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 463 Democrats, 374 Republicans and 113 independents.

The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2018 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education. 

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,006, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 5.8 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 10.5 percentage points for independents.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Kate Silverstein
Media Relations, US
Public Affairs
+1 718 755-8829
[email protected]

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