In Pennsylvania, Biden has small edge over Trump in final days before election
Washington, DC, November 1, 2020
The final Reuters/Ipsos survey in Pennsylvania before the election shows Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden with a slight edge over President Donald Trump among likely voters. When undecided voters are not forced to choose a candidate, Biden receives 51% of the vote share among likely voters, while Trump receives 44%. When the very few undecided voters are asked who they would pick for president if they had to choose, Biden receives 52% of the vote share of likely voters, and Trump receives 46%. This indicates that Trump could benefit from late deciders, but Biden maintains a small edge in the state.
Trump’s overall approval rating is 46% among all Pennsylvanians, higher than the national average. Twenty-nine percent of Pennsylvanians want a candidate who has a strong plan for coronavirus, and 23% want a candidate that is strong on the economy and job creation. Forty-six percent say that Biden is a better candidate for dealing with coronavirus, while 38% say the same about Trump. Trump is seen as the candidate who can perform better on the economy (48%) compared to Biden (40%).
Read the full Reuters story here.
Washington, DC, October 26, 2020
In Pennsylvania, former Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump remain in a hotly contested race. Among likely voters, Biden (50%) currently leads Trump (45%) by five percentage points, giving Biden a small edge over Trump in the state. Trump’s approval rating in Pennsylvania stands at 44%, slightly higher than the national average. Pennsylvanians believe coronavirus (39%) and the economy (19%) are the main problems facing Pennsylvania today. Along the same lines, 29% of Pennsylvanians are looking for a presidential candidate who has a strong plan for dealing with coronavirus, and 23% want a candidate who has a strong plan for the economy and job creation. Forty-five percent of Pennsylvanians believe Biden has a better plan for a coronavirus recovery compared to 39% who say the same thing about Trump. Nearly half say that Trump (48%) has a better plan for the economy and job creation, while 38% say Biden is a better candidate on the issue. Pennsylvanians are largely supportive of coronavirus economic stimulus policies like giving additional loans to small businesses for coronavirus-related economic relief (84%), postponing evictions (79%), additional unemployment payments to those Americans who have lost their jobs due to the pandemic (79%), and giving Americans stimulus checks (78%). Just 38% are supportive of Congress’ response to the pandemic.
Read the full Reuters story here.
Washington, DC, October 19, 2020
In Pennsylvania, among likely voters, former Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden receives just under half of the vote share (49%) while President Donald Trump receives (45%). The race in Pennsylvania has been right on the line between a tossup and a small Biden lead and has moved back into a tossup category. Trump’s approval rating stands at 46% among all Pennsylvanians, higher than the national average, which hovers around the 40% mark.
Coronavirus continues to be is seen as the main problem facing the state (38%), followed by the economy and job creation (19%). With that, nearly one-third of Pennsylvanians (29%) are looking for a candidate who can address the issue at the national level, and one-fifth are looking for a candidate who is strong on the economy and job creation (20%). Biden (42%) and Trump (40%) are tied this week in how Pennsylvanians perceive which candidate can better address the coronavirus pandemic. Nearly half of believe Trump (47%) performs better on the economy and job creation, compared to 37% who say the same thing about Biden.
When it comes to other contemporary issues, Pennsylvanians are largely supportive of economic stimulus measures, like additional loans to small businesses for coronavirus-related relief (84%), stimulus checks for Americans (78%), additional unemployment payments who have lost their job since the coronavirus pandemic began (78%), and eviction postponement (77%). Just 38% support how Congress has responded to the coronavirus. Additionally, a majority report they agree that the winner of the election should be able to appoint the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement to the court (60%).
Read the full Reuters story here.
Washington, DC, October 12, 2020
In Pennsylvania, Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden leads among likely voters in the race for the presidency (51%) against President Donald Trump (44%). Biden has more than doubled his lead since mid-September, when he received 49% of the vote share and Trump received 46%. When considering Trump’s overall job performance, 44% of all Pennsylvanians say they somewhat or strongly approve of the job Trump is doing as president.
A candidate’s plan for a strong recovery from the impact of coronavirus is the number one issue for 30% of Pennsylvanians when choosing a presidential candidate. Twenty percent say that a strong plan for the economy and job creation is their number one issue, and 17% want a candidate who has the ability to restore trust in government. These priorities have not statistically changed since mid-September. Looking at how the candidates fare on the issues, Pennsylvanians continue to see Trump as performing better on the economy and job creation than Biden (Trump – 48%, Biden – 38%). However, more Pennsylvanians see Biden as having a better approach to a coronavirus recovery than Trump (Biden – 45%, Trump – 39%). More Pennsylvanians believe Biden will be able to restore trust in government than Trump (Biden – 44%, Trump – 37%).
Read the full Reuters story here.
Washington, DC, October 5, 2020
In Pennsylvania, former Vice President Joe Biden (50%) has a slight edge over President Donald Trump (45%) among likely voters. This is a slight improvement from the previous survey in mid-September when the race was too close to call among likely voters. President Trump’s approval rating continues to be higher than the national average among all respondents (46%) in Pennsylvania. A candidate having a strong plan to overcome the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic is most important to 28% of Pennsylvanians, followed by a strong plan for the economy and job creation (20%) and the ability to restore trust in government (17%). These perceptions are statistically unchanged since mid-September. Among all respondents, Trump is seen as having a better plan on the economy and job creation (51%) than Biden (38%). Biden is seen as having a stronger plan to recover from the pandemic (45%) than Trump (40%) and is also seen as more capable of restoring trust in government (Biden – 43%, Trump – 36%). Looking ahead to the political fight to fill the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat, 59% of those in Pennsylvania believe that the winner of the election should be able to appoint Ginsburg’s replacement on the Supreme Court.
Read the full Reuters story here.
Washington, DC, September 21, 2020
In Pennsylvania, the race for president between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is too close to call among likely voters. Among likely voters, Donald Trump receives 46% of the vote share, and Joe Biden receives 49%. Among all Pennsylvanians, Trump’s approval rating stands at 44%, slightly higher than the Reuters/Ipsos average which has been hovering near 40% since the beginning of this year. Having a robust plan to deal with the COVID-19 crisis is the most important candidate trait among Pennsylvanians (29%), followed closely by having a strong economic policy (22%) and the ability to restore trust in government (16%). President Trump is seen as better on the economy (48%) than Biden (40%), but Biden (44%) has a slight edge over Trump (41%) on the plan for COVID-19. Biden (44%) is also seen as the candidate who can best restore trust in government, rather than Trump (37%).
Read the full Reuters story here.
About the Study
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted October 27 – November 1, 2020, on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this study, a total of 1,006 adults age 18+ from Pennsylvania were interviewed online in English, including 673 likely voters. The first wave of this poll was conducted September 11-16, 2020, among 1,005 adults age 18+ from Pennsylvania, including 611 likely voters. The second wave of this poll was conducted September 29 – October 5, 2020, among 1,000 adults age 18+ from Pennsylvania, including 605 likely voters. The third wave of this poll was conducted October 6-11, 2020, among 1,002 adults age 18+ from Pennsylvania, including 622 likely voters. The fourth wave of this poll was conducted October 13-19, 2020, among 1,001 adults age 18+ from Pennsylvania, including 653 likely voters. The fifth wave of this poll was conducted October 20-26, 2020, among 1,005 adults age 18+ from Pennsylvania, including 655 likely voters.
The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2018 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Posthoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the online sample for this poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,006, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points). The online poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for likely voters.
The first wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for likely voters. The second wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.5 points for likely voters. The third wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.5 points for likely voters. The fourth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.4 points for likely voters. The fifth wave has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all online respondents and plus or minus 4.4 points for likely voters.
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