The Inside Track: 2022 Midterm Elections April Highlights

The Inside Track 2022 midterm election webinar series presents an in-depth analysis of the latest public opinion data on current trends and recent events influencing the political landscape. Read below for highlights and key insights from this month’s webinar.

What you need to know:

The issue landscape in American politics right now is scattered.

• Though, the economy remains the number one issue regardless of party.

A growing number of Americans believe that climate change is caused by human activity.

• Even as more Americans now feel this way, many still aren’t willing to make substantial changes to their habits and behavior to limit the effects of climate change.

Many Americans now see COVID as a manageable issue and are increasingly doing out-of-home activities.

• At the same time, it seems few are paying attention to what the virus is doing in their community.

Consumer confidence remains below pre-pandemic levels.

• Fewer people feel confident purchasing household goods and making investments, likely due to the inflationary period.

President Biden’s approval rating remains in the low-40s and he is not performing well on the main issue people care about: the economy.

• Because of this, it is likely that Republicans will make gains in the House and Senate.

Deep dive: Issue landscape remains diffuse

There is no single problem that unifies a majority of the public. Even with that, overall, the economy is the biggest issue for Americans right now, with 28% of respondents reporting this as their main issue. While lower than the share of people who felt the economy was the main problem during the Great Recession, the number has risen in recent months.

Partisanship plays an important role in driving differences in opinion here. Even as the economy remains the most important issue for people regardless of party, more Republicans and independents cite it as a problem. For Democrats, no one concern wins decisive consensus.

Growing recognition that climate change is being caused by human activity

A small but growing number of Americans feel that climate change is mostly caused by human activity. In 2017, half of Americans felt this way. Now about three in five (57%) people believe this. Still, there are important partisan differences here. A decisive majority of Democrats (78%) feel climate change is mostly caused by human activity, while only one in three Republicans agree.

Despite more people seeing climate change as a problem, Americans still fall behind many other countries when it comes to the behaviors they are willing to modify to limit the effects of climate change. Largely, Americans are more willing to do things like buy products with less packaging than make substantive changes to their transit choices.

Most Americans see COVID as a manageable issue

Many people are engaging in out-of-home activities, like seeing friends and family, and are not taking protective measures, like social distancing. Overall, at this point in the country’s relationship to COVID, the virus is viewed by many as a manageable problem. Though, even here, COVID continues to be viewed through a political lens. Many Republicans (57%) feel that the country should open up and get back to life as usual with no coronavirus mandates or requirements. Only 29% of independents and 8% of Democrats feel this way.

Interestingly, many Americans (71%) report that if cases climbed, they would revert to wearing a mask some or all of the time. Yet, when the poll was conducted, cases across the country were climbing, and few Americans were aware of that or actively changing their behavior.

Americans remain supportive of helping Ukraine but not taking military action

Americans' attitudes toward Ukraine remain supportive and stable. There is majority or even super-majority support for economic sanctions or seizing the assets of oligarchs, but minority support for direct military engagement in the conflict.

Many agree that taking economic action in the war is worth any of the costs that come with it. A majority agree that the U.S. should not buy oil or gas from Russia during this conflict, even if it causes American gas prices to increase. Similarly, many feel that paying more for fuel and gas because of sanctions against Russia is worthwhile to defend another democratic country.

Consumer confidence remains below pre-pandemic levels

Even as unemployment remains low, inflation hit a new 40-year high this month with some recessionary signals flaring up. Consumer confidence continues to fluctuate and remain below pre-pandemic levels. More specifically, fewer people feel confident purchasing household goods and making investments, likely due to inflationary pressures. But, on other measures, many feel confident in things, like their job security.

A majority of Americans expect inflation to continue and are adjusting their behaviors accordingly. In particular, lower- and middle-income Americans are concerned about their ability to pay their bills and afford groceries.

2022 midterm forecast

Right now, the most likely outcome for the 2022 midterms is Republicans gaining seats in the House and Senate. President Biden’s overall approval rating sits in the low-40s while his job performance on the issues most important to Americans remains lower. In addition, the issues that Biden does relatively well on are no longer as important to the public, such as his handling of COVID. With all of those factors in mind, it is likely then that Republicans will make gains in the House and Senate.