Orthogonal tendencies
With just under four months till Election Day, plenty could still happen.
But, right now, the big question is whether the historic events of the past few months will change the well-held pattern of the president’s party losing seats in the House of Representatives during the midterms. Some new indicators are positive for Democrats. But, overall, it seems Biden and Democrats are swimming upstream here.
Below are five charts that illustrate where Biden and the Democrats are at this point in the race:
- Tough Spot. President Biden’s approval rating is low. A sitting president with an approval rating of 40% has better than a 50/50 chance of winning the next election. Look at his job numbers with core constituents in his base. Biden’s approval with Black Americans has dipped significantly since this time last year. Overall, Biden is flirting with that 40% mark, and consistently coming out on the wrong side of it. Why? Inflation. Inflation. Inflation.
- The Ballot. Up until this point Republicans held an advantage on the generic Congressional ballot. Now, Democrats have gained ground and narrowed it to a toss-up. Why is that? The Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe vs. Wade may have something to do with this. Look at the ballot among women. It doesn’t look good for Republicans among this group. Enough to turn the election? We will see.
- Swings to the Right. Though, on average, the party in power loses about 25 seats in the midterms. There are few exceptions to this general trend. The Democrats currently hold a narrow margin in the House, meaning that if the House swings near the average, the House would be decidedly not in their favor. Will Biden buck this norm?
- Marginal Effect. Taking a step back, it's important to contextualize presidential approval ratings during a midterm election. While presidential approval is important, it is not as consequential in Congressional outcomes as in presidential elections. For the House, presidential approval ratings explain about 34% of the outcome in the House, or about 9 seats. For the Senate, it is even less.
- A Red Year. Even with the movement on the generic Congressional ballot, all pundit forecasts point in the same direction. Republicans are favored to win the House. The Senate remains a toss-up with a slight lean towards Republicans, depending on who you ask. Republican sweep? We will see.
Democratic control of Congress will be undone by the historic cycadean rhythms of American politics—the president’s party does poorly at the halfway point. Biden is reeling from inflation. But, his troubles mean much less for the midterms than we would think.
