The Brazilian election heats up
The Brazilian election is coming to a head; it looks like it will be two heavyweights: Bolsonaro vs. Lula.
Neither candidate is perfect. Both have significant liabilities that cut to the heart of the issues Brazilians are most worried about, like corruption, the economy, and healthcare. Lula, a former president, was convicted and arrested on money laundering and corruption charges, serving prison time.
Bolsonaro, the controversial figure currently serving as president, has taken significant heat over many things, from his autocratic flare to his handling of the pandemic. To date, over 680,000 Brazilians have died from COVID. Add in inflation and the weakened economy, and he is facing serious headwinds to hold onto his presidency.
Time is ticking. The first round of voting is on October 2. The first debate begins in two weeks. Ahead of all of that, this week, we examine the political and economic factors surrounding the Brazilian election.
- President Lula? From the polling it looks like Lula is the strong favorite. Most polls have Lula leading. So, is it a done deal?
- Brazilians are Poorer. The pandemic has left its imprint on Brazil, and this hurts Bolsonaro. The clear proof point is income—Brazilians have become poorer during the pandemic. Will Lula make Brazil great again? Maybe.
- Broken Brazil. Brazilians are worried about social and economic mobility. And they believe the system is broken. All positive signs for Lula? We will see.
- Macro Improvement. The macroeconomics is looking better. These are glimmers of hope for Bolsonaro. Is it too little too late? Time will tell.
- Tipping point. Bolsonaro is almost there. Remember, a 40 percent approval rating is where a sitting president has a better than 50/50 chance of winning. Bolsonaro is improving. But did this improvement come soon enough to push Bolsonaro over the top?
The sprint is on, with only 51 days until election day. Bolsonaro finds himself in a deep hole because of the pandemic. At the same time, he is facing off against a formidable adversary in Lula.
For us, it is all about timing. Will the improving economy push Bolsonaro towards a victory? Right now, it is not clear. Bolsonaro must go through Lula to get there. Get your popcorn out; this should be interesting.
