Reflections on the 2008 Election Campaign

"I'm an alien, I'm a legal alien, I'm an Englishman living in New York" -- and I have been for two years now. I pay my taxes, I contribute to American society but what this endearing term `legal alien' means is that I have no right to vote.

Voting frustration aside though - I've made it!! I've experienced two years of American election fever first hand and come out of the other side with more of an understanding of what the election means to the American people, how they think about it, how they interact with and react to the process of nominations, primaries, caucuses, conventions, and debates.

As a Public Affairs researcher specializing in polls, elections, and civil society and being fully immersed in the election process, I've been like the proverbial pig in muck which in some ways makes up for the lack of vote!

So in what is one of the most important U.S. elections in recent memory, what are the highlights and lowlights of the campaign and what has really been grabbing the attention of the electorate?

If you look back to March, Arizona Senator John McCain sealed up the Republican nomination whilst, for the Democrats, thanks to the Reverend Jeremiah Wright and the Bosnia sniper incidents, the Republicans experienced a spike in the polls.

April and May passed and the Democrats were still trading blows with each other in the Primaries, meaning that McCain kept his nose ahead. It was not until June when Obama finally gained the magic number of delegates needed for the Democratic nod that the party really started making headway in the polls.

Late August and early September gave us the party conventions, complete with the official Presidential nomination, the unveiling of the Vice Presidential picks and a lot of debates around the word "lipstick"...be it on a pitbull or a pig. The excitement around the conventions meant that Republicans had their first positive Palin effect, pushing them ahead in the polls before the Democrats fought back again. But then, right in the middle of the national debates, the global financial crisis hit in a big way.

So is that what the U.S. election is? Style over substance? To the casual overseas observer, all of this sniping and grandstanding gives the impression that policies are not discussed and that surely the election must be about style over substance. Even cursory attention to the campaigns shows far more discussion of `change', `mavericks', and some guy called Joe - be he a plumber or a bloke with a six pack - than any thoughtful discussion of plans on how to move the United States in the right direction. Even after the financial meltdown, the candidates refused to discuss cuts to programs in their proposed agendas - instead, they pivoted to discussions of efficiency, and whether to use an axe or scalpel on the budget.

How does this play to the overseas (or non-American) audience? In part due to the present administration's somewhat more unilateral approach to foreign affairs than previous incumbents, overseas spectators can only see one outcome to the election, but is that because they only want to see one outcome?

It is, in reality, a gross over-simplification of an infinitely complex matter. The United States is a country of 300 million people, three of its 50 states rank among the top 15 economies in the world, huge percentages of the population have an extremely sophisticated knowledge of, and interest in, their politics. For instance, where else can you have a children's network where over 2.2 million children vote in a mock Presidential election to empower children to vote when they are old enough? Not only that, but a mock election where the children have got the correct result in four of the last five elections!

The key element here though is the one word - `their' - for it is interest in `their' (domestic) politics that comes first and foremost, and to understand U.S. politics we must learn to appreciate the scale that is behind this definition.

This scale is also where other problems start to emerge, for as we know from previous elections, large numbers - even majorities (be they sophisticated or otherwise) - of these 300 million do not necessarily matter with the Electoral College system. The potentially capricious nature of this system where popular vote does not necessarily equate with electoral victory not only heightens tension and interest, but also the uniqueness of American politics.

All of that aside, this is the day before the most important election in years. So, with the whole world watching - what is going to happen?

An Ipsos Public Affairs survey that came out of the field in late October confirmed that for 70% of respondents the second most concerning issue to Americans was the financial crisis as opposed to 59% citing the war in Iraq as the most concerning issue.

But the most concerning issue? For 73% of respondents currently the most concerning issue was the outcome of the Presidential election.

So while domestic issues are of paramount importance, there is no doubting that Americans are feeling scarred and scared by overseas affairs and this election really matters to them.

Hopefully this will translate to record turnout, irrespective of the weather, and if the seemingly record turnouts for early voting are anything to go by, this will be the case.

And now the big question: Who will win? Writing this one week before Election Day, polls are giving Obama a win of anywhere between five and ten percentage points. One day before the Election I'm predicting this will have reduced and we're possibly going to be within margins of error.

Two certainties though: First, do not rely on the polls to determine the outcome. They are not absolute. Voting is. It's going to be an extremely close run battle so get out and cast your own vote. Second certainty, all eyes will be focused on the Electoral College and whoever wins you'll understand what part the Electoral College plays and what it really means. This is democracy American style!