Vibes vs. the fundamentals

The 2024 Presidential race may end up boiling down to a battle of the vibes versus the fundamentals.

Vice President Kamala Harris took control of the vibes after her surprise summer entrance to the race, while former President Donald Trump has maintained control of the fundamentals, namely a low Biden approval rating and his dominance on the main issue of the day: the economy.

The election is less than one month away. Below are five charts on where the vibes and fundamentals stand heading into the last few weeks before the November election.

1. The polls. Harris’ entrance was characterized by a monumental shift in the polls. The momentum seems to have stalled, at least for now. The margins in polling averages have been somewhat constant over the past two months and may even be showing signs of closing. In the swing states, the odds have moved slightly in Trump’s favor. Can Harris maintain her momentum over the next month? We will see.
2. Personality advantage. Americans see Harris as a person they could relate to and as being the right person at the right time. When it comes to personality, signs point to Harris’ advantage. Though the data also suggests that Americans view Harris as part of the current establishment. This may affect her credibility on the economy.
3. The economy still favors Trump. Harris’ surge in the polls hasn’t rocked Trump’s lead on the economy. Trump also leads on the economy in the swing states. That said, even if it’s still Trump’s issue to lose, Harris may be getting some credit on the economy. The candidate that wins the main issue wins an election roughly 85% of the time. Watch this space.
4. Economic framing battle. What do Americans mean when they think economy? For some, it’s an economy that gives every American a chance to succeed. To others, it’s getting costs and inflation under control. Americans trust Trump more when it comes to controlling inflation, but Trump and Harris are tied when it comes to building an economy that gives every American a chance to succeed. With inflation cooling, could Americans’ priorities on the economy shift, too?
5. Trump, Trump, Trump. Despite cooling inflation and record stock market numbers, registered voters still prefer Trump across a variety of economic issues. The economy means different things to different people, but none of these issues favor Harris over Trump. Again, signs point to the economy being a key advantage for Trump.

Harris’ entrance to the race was characterized by a shift in momentum. But that momentum seems to be matched with Trump’s advantage on the fundamentals of the election. Barring another black swan event, the race may end up being a measure of who turns out to vote. Will vibes motivate people to turn out to the polls? Or will more traditional electoral fundamentals best predict who gets out the vote?

Despite cooling inflation over the last year, the cost of living remains top-of-mind for Americans when it comes to the economy, favoring Trump. However, Harris has cut into Trump’s advantage on the economy over the past few months. With one month remaining, will this near even match hold? We will see.