2017 French Election: Le Pen, Macron and Fillon take to the podium (March 28)
With only four weeks until the French Presidential election, Marine Le Pen leads the field in the latest Ipsos/Sopra Steria poll conducted on behalf of our media partners France Télévisions and Radio France. One in four likely voters say they support the National Front Party candidate, followed closely by Emmanuel Macron with 24% of likely voters, and François Fillon (18%.) Jean-Luc Mélenchon trails with 14% of likely voters, followed by Benoît Hamon (12%) and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (3.5%.) None of the other candidates received more than 1% voting support.
The state of mind of the French people, 4 weeks before the Presidential Election
Intention to vote
Nearly two in three (65%) of the interviewees report that they intend to vote in the first round of the election, when turnout is traditionally highest. Intention to vote increases with age.
First round
While our poll shows Le Pen leading in the first round, uncertainty is high: 41% of likely voters report that they could still change their mind about who to vote for. This is most likely for supporters of Hamon (52% not definite) Macron (47% not definite), and to a lesser extent, Mélenchon (40% not definite). In contrast, Fillon’s and Le Pen’s supporters are more confident in their choices with just 16% and 18% respectively reporting that their choice isn’t definite.
Second round
A second-round vote would likely see Macron opposing Le Pen, a match that Macron would likely win (with 62% of certain voters choosing him vs. 38% for Marine Le Pen). His victory would be assisted by vote transfers from Hamon’s electorate (77% would vote for Macron in the second round), and to a lesser extent, from Mélenchon’s supporters (54% of whom say they would vote for him on the second round).
Candidates’ image
Macron appears to be the most reassuring candidate for the interviewees, for both for his personality and for his policies but he still hasn’t convinced a majority; 30% said they are reassured by his personality, and 28% by his policies, the highest scores of all candidates.
According to registered voters, Macron is the candidate the most likely to positively influence France’s future: 25% think that if he is elected, the situation will improve (vs. 33% who think it will get worse and 42% who don’t know). Voters are more divided on Le Pen, who has the next highest level of anticipated positive influence (22%) but a majority (59%) think that the situation in France would worsen if she is elected. Similarly, 22% of registered voters believe Fillon would have a positive influence on the country, but 55% anticipate a degradation if he is elected.
Candidates’ potential to win
Our poll finds that the interviewees think Macron is the candidate most likely to be elected (77% think that it is certain/chances are high). Almost half feel Le Pen (48%) will take the election, far more than for Fillon (29%), Hamon (15%) or Mélenchon (12%).
