Brazil Pulse - Direction of Country and President's Approval - March 2016

March was an intense month in the Brazilian political scenario

It started with the coercive testimony of the former President Lula as he was suspected to be involved in the Lava Jato (“carwash”) corruption scheme. Following this event, Lula was appointed Chief of Staff by President Rousseff and endless precautionary actions against it were taken. On top of that, the disclosure of wiretapped recordings involving both Lula and the President Rousseff,  the government loss of a key ally as PMDB (Brazil’s biggest political party) left the government coalition, the impeachment vote in congress and the ongoing demonstrations against and supporting the government, intensified an institutional crisis which has not been seen in a long time.     

It is not by chance that 94% of Brazilians think the country is going on the wrong direction – such indicator is above 90% since June, 2015, having reached its peak at 94% in October of that same year.

The political indicators of Pulso Brasil confirm that the image of Rousseff’s government is deteriorating towards public opinion. 81% of respondents rated her administration as either bad or very bad. This trend has already been identified by Pulso Brasil in late 2014 and was confirmed over the following months.

Impeachment regains support

Support for impeachment rises again, peaking at 61% in the second half of last year. The government arguments, saying that impeaching the President is a violation of the constitution, do not seem to have taken effect (even because they began to be widely used by the government only in the last days of March). Pulso Brazil next survey will allow a better understanding of the impacts of the government’s defense arguments (having Lula as the most prominent spokesman) with public opinion.

The (new?) Brazilian agenda: the battle against corruption and concern about the economy

The fight against corruption is gaining strength in the Brazilian agenda. For 14% of the population it is the problem that should be solved in the first place. However, this topic still falls behind social and economic issues, what makes total sense in a country where the economy is clearly slowing down, GDP is falling, Dollar is climbing and unemployment and inflation are going up.

Besides that, at the end of 2015 it was registered an 1% raise on the Gini’s index, which measures the size of inequality in society. This fact might seem  insignificant, but it is the first increase in Brazilian inequality since the turn of the century. It represents a blow in PT’s (Workers Party) social agenda in its 13 years of power.

This means that both the middle class and the poor are being severely affected and losing socioeconomic achievements won on the last decade. Researches from Ipsos show the impact of the size of the crisis on consumption and in the Brazilians pocket, with a fall in disposable income and purchasing power, resulting in changes on behavior and in the relationship between brands and consumers.

The impact on consumers’ confidence

Such instability reflects drastically  in Brazilians' confidence. The Brazilian Consumer Confidence Index, monitored since 2005 by Ipsos and ACSP (São Paulo Commercial Association), remains stagnant at its lowest level in history, marking 73 points in march 2016.  This trend was also detected by Pulso Brasil in late 2014, foreseeing difficult days for companies and consumers in the coming months. Impressive 2/3 of the population do not feel safe to buy a stove or a refrigerator – even less a car or a property. The first trimester of the year ended up with 57% of the population not  confident about keeping their jobs (against 23% in October 2014).

The next days will define the agenda of the Impeachment process. Previous researches conducted by Ipsos showed strong support of the Brazilian population to the battle against corruption, to Lava Jato operation and to the investigation of all political parties. Now, the big issue is to measure the impact of the arguments against Lava Jato and the effects caused by the economy breakdown. The answers to these questions will be on the next wave of Pulso Brasil ( to be released on April 2016).

In addition to the usual monitoring of the key political, economic and social indicators, Pulso Brasil will also bring a deep analysis  about the public opinion perception towards Lava Jato and its influence in the political values and in the Brazilian’s behavior. What kind of agenda do Brazilians want? Who are the political leaders that are better evaluated by the population? Can Brazilians see a new political leadership? 

Additionally, we’ll assess the impact of the crisis in the consumption and in the family budget. Which are the products that have its categories preserved by consumers in the currently crisis? Are there any categories that have not been affected by the crisis?