Does Clinton’s 8-Point Lead Look Softer Than at First Blush? Clinton v. Trump on Policy & Personal Quality Matchups

As we head into this final stretch, key qualities—both policy positions and personal attributes—will come into greater relief and begin to define voter calculus about the candidates.

As such, what are those key qualities that American voters are looking for in their candidates for president?  And how do the two major party candidates match up on these key points?

In an attempt to answer these questions, we asked likely voters two sets of questions.

• The first asked voters to rank order those qualities which are most important for a presidential candidate to possess.  Here we mixed both policy issues with personal qualities.
• The second question asked which candidate was stronger on these points.

So what did we find?

In terms of quality importance, we find that the top three in order are “economy/jobs”, “terrorism”, and “fixing a broken system”.   For Republicans, “terrorism” is most important, followed closely by “economy/jobs”.  For Both Democrats and Independents, “economy/jobs” is also the most important with “terrorism” a more distant second.  In contrast, “fixing a broken system”—one of the central themes of Trump and his campaign—is a strong tertiary issue for both Republicans and Independents.

Here it is key to note that empirical studies have shown that the candidate which is strongest on the main issues (or qualities) wins the election 80% of the time.  So how do the candidates stack up on these points?

Simply put, the election still is far from over!  While Clinton does lead Trump on the top quality “stronger on economy/jobs” by five points, they are in a dead heat on “terrorism” and “fixing a broken system”–much closer than the 8 point average Clinton lead in the polls.

We should expect that these three interrelated qualities will be the battleground in the lead-up to the first debates and beyond.  The candidate who owns these qualities will win the election.