Lifting of COVID restrictions fails to trigger an uptick in global consumer confidence
Ipsos’s new reading on consumer confidence around the world finds that the war in Ukraine has tempered optimism brought upon by the lifting of COVID-control measures in many parts of the world. The latest survey conducted between February 18 and March 4 finds no significant month-over-month change in the National Consumer Confidence Index of most countries. Among 23 countries, 16 show no meaningful change (i.e., less than +/- 1.5 points) since February. Five countries– Israel, Belgium, Japan, Canada, and Sweden – show significant drops while only Saudi Arabia and Hungary record significant gains.
Two years after the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic, as many countries (nine) show a National Index that remains significantly lower than it was at the beginning of 2020 as now enjoy a significantly higher one.
Of note, five countries show a significant drop from last month in their Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ outlook about their future financial situation, local economy, and jobs environment: Italy, Germany, Belgium, Israel, and Sweden. Saudi Arabia is the sole country showing a significant uptick in Expectations.
National Index Trends
Nine countries continue to show a National Index above the 50-point mark: China (70.2), Saudi Arabia (67.2), India (62.8), Sweden (60.5), Australia (56.2), the United States (54.6), Germany (53.2), Great Britain (51.6), and Canada (50.0). Turkey (30.2) continues to be the only country with a National Index below 35.
Nine countries show an index score that is significantly higher than it was in January 2020: Australia (+5.7), Sweden (+4.6), Spain (+4), France (3.8), India (+3.3), Italy (+3.3), and Saudi Arabia (+3.2), South Korea (+2.5), and South Africa (+2.2). On the other hand, nine other countries record a National Index that is still significantly lower than it was pre-pandemic: the United States (-8 points), Poland (-7.9), Israel (-6.5), Brazil (-4.1), Turkey (-3.8), Canada (-2.3), Hungary (-2.1), Argentina (-1.7), and Mexico (-1.5).
Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends
Among 23 countries, Israel is the only one posting significant losses (at least -1.5 points) from last month across all the three sub-indices indicative of the jobs, expectations, and investment climate. Saudi Arabia and Hungary each show significant gains (at least + 1.5 points) over last month across two sub-indices.
- Turkey, Hungary, and South Africa post significant gains vs. last month in their Jobs index. No country other than Israel shows a significant loss.
- As mentioned above, only Saudi Arabia shows its Expectations Index up significantly while Italy, Germany, Belgium, Israel, and Sweden show significant drops.
- Five countries show significant month-on-month gains in their Investment Index– most of all Saudi Arabia (+5.5) and to a lesser extent, Hungary, India, Poland, and Brazil. In contrast, Belgium, Sweden, Japan, Israel, Canada, and Italy show significant drops.
