Paradise Lost

Ipsos’ new Global Trends survey gives us a panoramic view of how 18,000 people in 23 countries feel about the world – and their lives - today. It covers a very wide range of topics, such as people’s relationships with different brands and products, their use of technology and how they feel about their health. The 400-question study extends to sections on what citizens think of their governments, businesses and so-called experts. The “crisis of the elites” being one theme which emerges very strongly in the results.

We can certainly find much in here to be concerned about, alongside some reasons for being more cheerful. People in emerging markets, for example, are pretty optimistic about how healthcare provision is developing. And globally, two in three agree that “people across the world have more things in common than things that make them different”.

That said, one of the things that that immediately springs to mind turning the pages of the report is that countries do still matter. Globally, our team has identified three overarching themes – Fragmentation, Cohesion and Uncertainty – providing a lens through which we can explore the dynamics of the survey. But each country has its own particular set of attitudes and aspirations. And, in the case of France, we see rather more Fragmentation and Uncertainty than we do Cohesion.

France is of course just emerging from a bruising presidential election campaign which has starkly underlined the challenges it faces. What the Ipsos Trends survey does it put these pressure points in context. Set against a global backdrop, the French results are very worrying indeed.

Five reasons to be worried about France

1. The New Normal: 84% of French say “we live in an increasingly dangerous world”. France is still coming to terms with what the terrorist attacks in Paris and Nice mean for the country.  So far, so bad. The French are actually not alone here: 82% of the global population feel the same. But this is just the start.
2. A Big No to Globalisation: Just 31% say that “globalisation is good for my country”. Only Belgium scores lower. In “Brexit Britain”, that figure stands at 66%!
3. Nostalgia: 66% say “I would like my country to be the way it used to be”. Here, France records the third highest score of all 23 countries covered.
4. Gloom and Doom: Just 10% say they’re “optimistic” about their country’s prospects over the next 12 months. Across the Channel, the British manage to score 33; Canada registers 52%.
5. Generation Strains: These are not just short term problems. Just 10% say that today’s youth will have a “better life” than their parents – the lowest of any country.

Ipsos’ work on the Perils of Perception has documented just how wrong people often are about what is happening in the world around them. But the negative picture emerging from these French results does appear to be grounded in reality, at least to a degree. France may still be one of the richest countries in the world. But PWC’s latest analysis shows it poised to lose its place among the Top 10 world economies over the next decade. (Britain, meanwhile, is expected to hang in there, albeit by its fingertips).

What to do? On the eve of the French presidential campaign, we found just 9% of French people to be positive about their Government’s performance. Only Spain and Mexico score lower.  Which helps to explain why the final two candidates were both from outside the “mainstream” political parties. 

Meanwhile, this sense of alienation extends to the commercial world. In France, just 27% say they have a “high level of trust in business in general” – the lowest of any country. 

Turning the corner?

The Trends survey gives us a few pointers as to what a “better France” might look like. 

Perhaps it would be better to have more women in the limelight.  Some 59% say that in France “things would work better if more women held positions with responsibilities in government and in companies”.

And what of the potential that doing good business could unleash? Our study finds 62% of French consumers saying that “In the future, the most successful brands will be those that make the most positive contribution to society beyond just providing good services and products”.

Which raises the question of whether France can do more with the things that France it is good at.  Local produce, grounded in the terroir of the area, is not going out of fashion. Across France, 69% say “I am more likely to buy products that are locally grown than those that are grown elsewhere”.

How to bring about the change the French people so clearly want to see? Six months before the elections, 66% of them were saying they wished “we had a strong leader not the current elected government.” In opting for Macron vs Le Pen, they showed the politicians what they thought of the existing set-up. It’s too early of course to judge whether Macron is going to be that “strong leader” the public are looking for. But we should be in no doubt that this is a country that is not at ease with itself - something thrown into sharper focus against this international backdrop. Some countries are reasonably up-beat about things.  France, most certainly, is not.