Expectation survey for Norges Bank - third quarter 2020 results
Ipsos is commissioned by Norges Bank to carry out quarterly surveys in Norway of expectations of inflation, wage growth, the krone exchange rate and interest rates among economists in the financial industry and academia, the social partners, business leaders and households.
Main results for Q3 2020:
Short-term price inflation
The economists expect the goods and services inflation 12 months ahead to be at 2.2 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. The social partners expect the goods and services inflation to be 2.1 percent in 12 months, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. The business leaders expect goods and services inflation to be 2.6 percent in 12 months, up 0.1 percentage points. The households expect goods and services inflation to be 2.1 percent, down 0.4 percentage points, compared to the previous quarter.
Expected annual wage growth
The economists expect an annual wage growth of 2.0 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. The social partners expect an average annual wage growth of 1.9 percent this year, down 0.1 percentage compared to the previous quarter. The business leaders expect an annual wage increase of 1.9 percent this year, up 0.3 percentage points. The households expect an annual wage and pension income growth of 1.4 percent over the next 12 months, remaining unchanged from the previous quarter.
Expected profitability
25 percent of the business leaders expect an improved profitability the next 12 months, an increase of 7.4 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. 36.1 percent of the business leaders expect unchanged profitability over the next 12 months, up 11.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, while 35.1 percent expect their profitability to weaken, down 16.5 percentage points from the previous quarter.
