Turnbull still ahead, but perception of Shorten’s image improves - Fairfax Ipsos Poll

The national poll of 1,200 respondents, interviewed from 20-23 June 2018, shows the Labor party on 53% (down one point since May), with the Coalition on 47% (up one point since May), based on 2016 election preferences.
“This indicates a -3.4% swing against the Coalition Government since the July 2016 Federal election,” Ipsos Director, Jessica Elgood, said.
“The two-party stated preference vote shows the Labor party on 54%, up one point since May, and the Coalition on 46%, down one point since May.”
First preference votes put Labor on 35% (down two points since May) and the Coalition on 35% (down one point since May). The Greens are on 12% (up one point since May), One Nation is on 6% (up one point since May), Nick Xenophon Team is on 3% and others are on 9%. Six per cent of respondents are undecided.  These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures and from the primary vote figures.

Key findings

• Leaders’ approval ratings: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is 50% (down one point since May), and disapproval at 44% (up five points since May). Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 40% (up one point since May), and disapproval at 53% (up two points since May).
• Preferred Prime Minister: 51% prefer Malcolm Turnbull as the Prime Minister (down one point since May); 33% prefer Bill Shorten (up one point since May).
• Leader attributes: When asked to consider Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten’s personal attributes, Turnbull has a lead on eight of the eleven attributes. He is seen as competent, open to ideas and having a firm grasp of both economic and foreign policy.  However, Shorten’s attribute ratings have all improved since the question was last asked in April 2016.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister                                                                   

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has remained steady, at 50% (down one point since May), however his disapproval rating has risen to 44% (up five points since May). This gives a positive net approval of +6 (down six points since May).
Bill Shorten’s approval rating has also remained steady, at 40% (up one point since May) and his disapproval rating is 53% (up two points since May). This gives a net approval of -13 (up one point since May).
Malcolm Turnbull remains the preferred Prime Minister at 51% (down one point since May), while 33% favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (up one point since May).

Leader attributes

The tables below show the attribute scores for Turnbull and Shorten, and trends since February 2015.

Of the eleven attributes, Malcolm Turnbull leads on eight (those figures emboldened in the table below). In contrast, Mr Shorten leads on only three attributes.

Mr Turnbull’s ratings reflect the Australian public’s preference for him as the Prime Minister, rather than Mr Shorten. The public are more likely than in 2016 to see Mr Turnbull as having ‘the ability to make things happen’ (up 5 points), having ‘the confidence of his party’ (up 5 points), and having ‘a firm grasp of foreign policy’ (up 3 points). However, he is seen as less ‘competent’ (down 3 points), less ‘trustworthy’ (down 3 points) and the public are more likely to say he ‘is easily influenced by minority groups’ (up 4 points).

While his attribute ratings still lag behind those of Mr Turnbull, Mr Shorten is rated more highly on all eleven ratings than he was in April 2016 (when this question was last asked). In particular, he is now ten points more likely to be seen as a ‘strong leader’, having ‘a clear vision for Australia’s future’ and having ‘a firm grasp of economic policy’ – all fundamental attributes for an aspiring Prime Ministerial candidate.

Poll Profile    

Fieldwork dates:          20-23 June 2018

Sample size:                 1,200 respondents

Sample:                         National, aged 18+, 50% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.

Method:                         Telephone, using random digit dialling.

Statistical reliability:   ±2.9% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample

Analysis:                       The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.