53% of Scots think there should be a second independence referendum within the next five years

Ipsos MORI’s poll for BBC Scotland asked Scots for their views on the timing of a second independence referendum and on an extension to the Brexit transition period.

The author(s)

  • Emily Gray Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland
  • Ciaran Mulholland Ipsos MORI Scotland
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The Scottish public are divided on when, if at all, a second independence referendum should take place. While a third (34%) think there should be another referendum within the next two years, the same proportion do not think a second referendum should ever happen. Others endorse the idea of a second referendum, but not until between two and five years’ time (19%) or after the next five years (10%).

Timing of a second Scottish independence referendum

Young people are particularly likely to say there should be a second independence referendum within the next two years, with 46% giving this view, compared to 36% of those aged 35-54 and 22% of those aged 55 and over.

Two thirds of the Scottish public (66%) believe the Brexit transition period should be extended for up to two further years to allow more time for trade negotiations. Around a third (30%) feel the transition period should end on 31st December as planned. Young people are more likely to support an extension, with three quarters (76%) of those aged 16-34 saying the transition period should be extended.

Views on an extension to the Brexit transition period

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, commented:

A majority of Scots now think that a second independence referendum should take place at some point in the next five years. This poll was taken in the ninth week of the coronavirus lockdown, and shows that public support for Nicola Sturgeon’s handling of the outbreak is very high. The indication is that Scots’ attitudes are shifting during the coronavirus outbreak, and those campaigning on both sides of the independence debate in Scotland will be watching public opinion very closely over the coming weeks and months.

Technical note

Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,006 Scottish adults aged 16+ by telephone between 14th and 20th May 2020. Data are weighted to the profile of the population.

 

The author(s)

  • Emily Gray Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland
  • Ciaran Mulholland Ipsos MORI Scotland

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