Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor November 2011

The November Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows Labour increase their lead in the polls and just 15% believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months.

Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor November 2011

Economic optimism is at its worst since 2009, as eight in ten say the state of the European economy influences the British economy (even more than say British government decisions do). Half think Britain’s economy will be neither better nor worse off than most other European economies over the next 12 months.

Half of the public think Cameron and Osborne have responded well to the economic crisis in Europe – more than think European leaders such as Sarkozy and Merkel have done well

Voting intention: CON 34 (nc); LAB 41 (+3); LIB DEM 12 (nc)

The November Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows that just 15% believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months while 58% expect it to get worse (a net Economic Optimism Index of -43). This is the highest “get worse” rating Ipsos MORI has recorded since February 2009.

One in four people (27%) think the British economy will be better off than most other European economies in a year’s time while 16% think it will be worse off.  Half (54%), though, think it will be about the same.  Linked to this, 80% say that the state of the European economy has at least a fair amount of influence on the British economy, even more than the 71% who think that British government decisions do.

Half (52%) of the public think David Cameron and George Osborne have responded at least fairly well to the current economic crisis in Europe. This is higher than the 44% who think leading European politicians such as Sarkozy and Merkel have handled it well.

Just over half of the public (55%) believe Britain should not loan money to another country, even if that country is on the verge of bankruptcy, because Britain should concentrate on sorting out its own problems. Four in ten (40%) say it is in Britain’s best interests to loan money to a country that needs it, given the reliance of Britain’s economy on others. This represents a small shift in opinion towards Britain not lending since December 2010.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI said:

 “It is interesting that at a time of great turmoil in the eurozone, reflected in the public’s concern over the economy and recognition of the influence Europe’s economy has over our own, domestic political indicators are still quite stable.”

Other key findings:

  • Voting intentions are unchanged for the coalition partners, while Labour has increased its share this month at the expense of minor parties. Among all certain to vote the Conservatives are on 34%, Labour on 41% and Liberal Democrats on 12%.
  • Satisfaction with government and all three party leaders has not changed significantly since October:
    • David Cameron has a net satisfaction rating of -14;
    • Ed Miliband’s net satisfaction rating is -15; and
    • Nick Clegg has a net satisfaction rating of -30.
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Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,006 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 19-21 November 2011.  Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

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