1997 Eve-of-Poll Election Survey
MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,501 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. All interviews were conducted by telephone between 2 p.m. and 9 p.m. on 30 April 1997. All respondents had previously been interviewed by MORI in campaign polls conducted between 21 March and 14 April 1997, and had given their permission to be re-contacted. Data were weighted to match the profile of the population and the original voting intention of the panel baseline.
Q. How important is it to you personally who wins the General Election?
| All | Con | Lab | LibDem | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| Very important | 44 | 51 | 52 | 33 |
| Fairly important | 35 | 32 | 35 | 45 |
| Not very important | 15 | 14 | 9 | 15 |
| Not at all important | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| No opinion | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Q. How much difference, if any, do you think it will make to you and your family who wins the General Election?
| All | Con | Lab | LibDem | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| A great deal | 23 | 26 | 28 | 16 |
| Fair amount | 34 | 43 | 36 | 31 |
| Not very much | 32 | 24 | 28 | 42 |
| None at all | 8 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Don’t know | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Q. How do you intend to vote in the general election tomorrow? Q. (If undecided or refused) Which party are you most inclined to support?
| % | |
|---|---|
| Conservative | 29 |
| Labour | 47 |
| Liberal Democrat | 19 |
| Scottish/Welsh Nationalist | 2 |
| Green | * |
| Referendum Party | 2 |
| Other | * |
| Voting intention percentages exclude: | |
| Would not vote | 5 |
| Undecided | 4 |
| Refused | 4 |
Q. How likely are you to get along to vote in the General Election?
| All | Con | Lab | LibDem | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| Certain not to vote | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Not very likely to vote | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Quite likely to vote | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Very likely to vote | 8 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
| Certain to vote | 80 | 87 | 84 | 85 |
| Don’t know | 1 | 1 | * | * |
Q. If you do vote, about what time do you expect to go to the polling station tomorrow? Base: All except those certain not to vote (1,420)
| All | Con | Lab | LibDem | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| 7am-9am | 13 | 14 | 13 | 18 |
| After 9am up to 10am | 11 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| After 10am up to 12pm | 15 | 15 | 14 | 17 |
| After 12pm up to 3pm | 10 | 7 | 11 | 12 |
| After 3pm up to 5pm | 8 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 5pm up to 7pm | 21 | 20 | 21 | 17 |
| 7pm up to 10pm | 11 | 12 | 9 | 10 |
| Don't know | 12 | 15 | 11 | 8 |
Q (To all naming a party) Have you definitely decided to vote for the . . . party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?
| All | Con | Lab | LibDem | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| Definitely decided | 83 | 82 | 89 | 74 |
| May change mind | 16 | 17 | 11 | 25 |
| Don’t know | * | * | * | * |
Q (To all who may change mind) If you do change your mind about voting for the . . . party, which party would you vote for instead?
| All | Con | Lab | LibDem | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| Conservative | 15 | - | 22 | 20 |
| Labour | 26 | 29 | - | 47 |
| Liberal Democrats | 28 | 28 | 59 | - |
| Scot/Welsh Nationalist | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Green Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Referendum Party | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Other | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| Would not vote | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Undecided | 18 | 32 | 9 | 12 |
| Refused | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Q. Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister, Mr Major, Mr Blair or Mr Ashdown?
| % | |
|---|---|
| Major | 27 |
| Blair | 40 |
| Ashdown | 19 |
| Don't know | 15 |
Q. What do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming general election: a Labour majority; a Conservative majority; or no overall majority for either party? (If Labour or Conservative majority) How big do you think the majority will be? Q. And what would you personally like to be the outcome: a Labour majority; a Conservative majority; or no overall majority for either party? (If Labour or Conservative majority) How big would you personally like the majority to be?
| Expectation | Preference | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (21-24 March) | Recall (30 April) | Baseline (21-24 March) | Recall (30 April) | |
| % | % | % | % | |
| A large majority for Labour (Labour majority of more than 100 MPs) | 16 | 17 | 28 | 27 |
| A medium-sized majority for Labour (Labour majority of 51-100 MPs) | 29 | 31 | 15 | 15 |
| A small majority for Labour (Labour majority of up to 50 MPs) | 26 | 24 | 8 | 6 |
| No overall majority for either party | 8 | 18 | 10 | 15 |
| A small majority for the Conservatives (Conservative majority of up to 50 MPs) | 9 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| A medium-sized majority for the Conservatives (Conservative majority of 51-100 MPs) | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 |
| A large majority for the Conservatives (Conservative majority of more than 100 MPs) | 1 | * | 9 | 10 |
| Don’t know | 8 | 4 | 13 | 13 |
Q. Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy?
| All | Con | Lab | LibDem | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| Conservative | 32 | 80 | 8 | 19 |
| Labour | 31 | * | 65 | 12 |
| Liberal Democrat | 13 | 2 | 7 | 51 |
| Other | 1 | * | 1 | * |
| None | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Don’t know | 17 | 15 | 14 | 11 |
